‘The question now is, who will do the better job at getting the votes out? Two things matter — passion and organization.’
SURVEY, too. But in the end, it’s the votes that count. And only the votes.
And on this matter, as we all know, this election is not over till the last ballot is counted.
I am amused that the Marcosian and Leni-nist camps are embroiled in a social media war on who is getting the bigger crowds at rallies. Not only do they boast about their turnouts; they also make sure they cast aspersions on the turnouts of the other camp. Binayaran ba, as one side claims. Red-tagged ba, as another suggests.
And each camp has the same refrain: “Panalo na ito.”
The surveys have been saying that one candidate has had a considerable lead since the get-go, albeit a lead that has slowly been decreasing. Problem is, depending on which survey you look at, the candidate who is slowly inching his way up is not consistently the same one — and the lead, despite the slide, remains formidable especially, when there are three or four other strong vote-getters all appealing to the same voter base.
It’s the votes and only the votes that will count.
Surveys have had their share of miscalls. Most famous of late was the come-from-behind victory of Republican Donald Trump, who lost the popular vote but won the all-important electoral college tally that made him president of the United States in 2016. Hillary Clinton was considered a shoo-in, having been the clear or slight leader in almost all opinion polls taken up until the eve of voting day. But clearly, something was not detected by the surveys, and many voters didn’t care about what the surveys said.
Here at home, in the province of Palawan, it was a given that the 2019 plebiscite to support the idea of dividing the province into three new provinces was going to pass by a wide margin. That’s what the surveys were saying. But on plebiscite/Election Day, lo and behold, the voters had a surprise waiting for the political leadership of the province: the proposal was roundly rejected in all municipalities, except one (Bataraza) — and Palawan remained one intact provincial LGU.
It’s the votes, and only the votes, that count.
The question now is, who will do the better job at getting the votes out? Two things matter — passion and organization. Passion, because a determined voter will go through hell and high water just to be able to cast that all important vote for an election that may boil down to one single ballot. But on the other hand, organization counts just as equally important — because a campaign will need to know how to canvass for votes and how to get out their supporters on Election Day to make sure every vote that can be won is won.
Is it fair to say that one camp is high on passion while the other is strong in organization?
We will know on Election Day. Because sometimes it can work to one’s disadvantage that one is seen as a “sure winner” — a potential voter doesn’t feel the urgency to vote because one more vote in a landslide won’t matter much.
But imagine if the same thought was held by a thousand or by hundreds of thousands who then individually decide to stay away? Then the landslide may never come. And those who do vote may spring a surprise.
Rallies impress. Surveys, too. But in the end, it’s the votes — and only the votes — that count.
