The election is still BBM’s to lose. But if he is not careful, from where he is now, he has nowhere to go but down.
DOWN?
That’s what some chatter on social media is about, referring to the presidential aspirations of former senator Ferdinand Marcos Jr.
He has been leading every presidential survey for months now, but while his lead remains formidable, it hasn’t been growing. In fact, some numbers I’ve seen of late show the lead dropping from a commanding close to 40% to one showing that number being halved. Most other rivals seem to be gaining, some more than the others, with the Vice President, Leni Robredo, gaining the most.
But I must note that the VP still has a long way to go. Having said that, it must be clear that elections are a zero-sum game. What one loses, someone else gains. And that’s important to keep in mind.
I’ve loved following US presidential elections since my teen years, and I’ve seen many elections start off with one candidate having a considerable lead that slowly shrinks as the campaign period starts following Labor Day. The most dramatic of these, of course, was 2016, which early on consistently appeared to be a coronation of Hillary Clinton as the first female president of the United States only to see an Election Day upset by Donald Trump.
The only other similar upset was in 1948 (though I wasn’t born yet) when incumbent Harry Truman upset the Republican candidate Thomas Dewey, who surveys were predicting was the sure winner of the polls.
A number of others have become nail biters as well when poll numbers a week before Election Day were within the margin of error. Like Bush and Gore.
This is not the case with BBM, at least not yet, but yes, from his high standings he has nowhere to go but down. It should not be panic time in his campaign HQ yet, but they should be doubly conscious of the fact that his election is his to lose. So they better not make too many missteps going forward.
Was the decision to stay away from Jessica Soho a misstep? Depends on how you look at it. From the perspective of whether the interview was a requirement for the campaign, the answer is a clear no, contrary to the claim by critics that avoiding the Jessica interview was like having a job applicant void the HR interview. That’s a false comparison.
But from the perspective of a leadership image, it could be. Especially if the younger Marcos holds himself up as a worthy successor to the Marcos father. You see, the elder Marcos never shirked from a debate.
Or from an interview, no matter how hostile the “interrogator.” You don’t believe me?
YouTube is full of complete or partial videos of FEM taking questions from the likes of William Buckley Jr. and Ted Koppel, at different stages of his life – even when he was already in exile in Hawaii!
I still have to see the son live up to the standards of the father — at least when it comes to fielding questions, friendly or hostile.
And this can be a problem for those who are inclined to vote for the son because they miss the father. Will they begin looking elsewhere for strong leadership?
The election is still BBM’s to lose. But if he is not careful, from where he is now, he has nowhere to go but down.
