SO Donald J. Trump, the disgraced former president of the United States, won the first political exercise of the Republican Party in this election year. He took 50 percent of the votes in the Iowa Republican caucus that was conducted under extreme (Iowa) weather conditions; rivals Ron Desantis (governor of Florida) and Nikki Haley (former governor of South Carolina, split the anti-Trump votes, taking about 20 and 19, respectively, of caucus goers’ preference.
The win, which wasn’t unexpected, had some political analysts blaring how Trump was strong and unstoppable not only in the primaries — exercises conducted by the two main parties as a way of selecting their eventual nominee for president — but also in the November general elections.
‘I think it’s an easier call for Democrats to stay loyal and vote for Biden than for Republicans to stay loyal and vote for Trump.’
Trump, some people say, is on his way to retaking the White House after four years out of office. If they’re correct, he will be only the second US president to do this, the first being Grover Cleveland, a Democrat. Cleveland was president from March 1884 to March 1889, and then again from March 1893 to March 1896. Thus, he is counted as President # 22 and #24, with a Republican, Benjamin Harrison, being the #23 in between.
I am not as optimistic for Donald Trump. My gut feel tells me he will lose again and lose with an even bigger margin of defeat than what he suffered in 2020.
My reasoning is simple: Trump lost in 2020 because many moderate Republicans stayed away from his MAGA campaign, either staying home or voting for Joe Biden, while independents flocked to the Democrats in droves. This was 2020.
My gut feel tells me that in 2024 there are even more moderate Republicans turned off by Trump and his MAGA-Phone, and more independents as well. In contrast, the Democrats have fired up the electorate not only against Trump but also against his actions to reverse Roe v Wade. If this keeps up then it looks to me that Biden will be able to win a second term of office, while Trump will have to retire from politics forever.
Or maybe even serve some time in jail?
Of course, November is still a long way off. Trump still has to confront numerous legal cases from criminal to civil, in New York, in Georgia, in Florida, and the District of Columbia. Any one of these cases could effectively sink his campaign, if not by disqualifying him then by turning off more of the moderate Republicans and the independents who are still open to voting for Trump.
There, too, is the case of independent third-party candidates such as Robert Kennedy Jr. who could become a magnet for fringe voters, affecting the turnout for either Biden or, more likely, Trump. If enough of these fringe voters in swing states swing away from either mainstream candidate towards the third-party choice, then again, the outcome may be affected.
I think it’s an easier call for Democrats to stay loyal and vote for Biden than for Republicans to stay loyal and vote for Trump. The Republican Party under Trump is no longer the Republican Party of old. And for many of those who were for Reagan and Bush and McCain and even Romney, I suspect they’d rather antis — or vote for Biden — than see Trump returned to office.
As of today, Donald Trump, thanks to his “MAGA-phone,” may seem like he has the loudest voice among all major political players in the US. But in the end, my gut feel tells me that the general elections will turn out to be a victory for moderation and civility and, yes, for American democratic traditions.
