‘Clearly, events in one part of the globe these days have repercussions even a world away. And perhaps no other two capitals outside of the Middle East are as attentive to what’s happening there as Beijing and Pyongyang, and who could blame them?’
WHEN news outlets announced that the United States had dropped special bombs on three of Iran’s nuclear facilities, the world held its breath. Was this the provocation needed to launch World War 3?
For almost half a century since the Iranian revolution of 1979, the Islamic Republic has seen the elimination of the State of Israel as one of its ultimate goals. Israel has been described as the “little Satan,” an enemy next only to the US (the “great Satan”) in the hierarchy of its enemies. But Israel has proven itself resilient, able to defeat the Arab states that surround it in war after war after war; in the process, the number of “enemy states” have dwindled, unwilling and/or unable as they were to recommit more warm bodies to the effort to erase Israel from the map.
Worse, Israel is widely believed to possess nuclear capabilities, providing the Jewish nation an ace in its pocket. Now, if Israel could hold off its neighbors on the conventional warfare battlefield, how could it be defeated if it posed a nuclear threat?
This is why, over the years, Iran has launched its nuclear development. It started developing its capabilities just as another neighbor and rival – Iraq – was doing the same. But Israel made sure that Iraqis did not succeed, blowing up in June of 1981 its Osirak reactor in an operation codenamed “Opera.” Israel didn’t want to have a nuclear-equipped enemy an arm’s length away.
Iraq’s fate was a learning opportunity for Iran, and this is why it took pains to develop underground nuclear facilities. But after almost half a century of threats to decapitate Iran’s nuclear program, it finally happened – when the United States, not Israel, dropped bunker busting bombs on three facilities to forever cripple the nuclear ambitions of the Islamic Republic.
There are several reasons why what happened in Iran should have made the highest leadership in Beijing and Pyongyang sit up and take notice, but perhaps for different reasons.
For China, the primary reason could be a defensive matter. It’s been believed that China has been a major supplier of defense systems to Iran, from weapons to radar systems and other electronic gadgets. All of these seem to have failed in the face of the Israeli onslaught that was waged for over a week before the US bombing run; Israeli missiles and its Air Force neutralized Iranian defenses to the extent that by the time the US bombers flew into Iran, the Islamic Republic could no longer defend itself.
What implications do these hold for China’s defense capabilities?
For Pyongyang, on the other hand, seeing Iran’s nuclear facilities bombed in a precise targeting should raise questions about its ability to shield its facilities from such an attack. Does the Iranian experience weaken the hand of North Korean leader Kim in negotiations with South Korea or the United States? And should North Korea continue to act aggressively, provoking counteraction from the US-South Korea-Japan alliance, could this provoke domestic problems for Kim?
Clearly, events in one part of the globe these days have repercussions even a world away. And perhaps no other two capitals outside of the Middle East are as attentive to what’s happening there as Beijing and Pyongyang, and who could blame them?
