‘Even if Metro Manila were to achieve herd immunity by end September, this would be negated by the virus spreading throughout Luzon, the Visayas and Mindanao, with the
fearsome possibility that
a Philippine variant emerges.’
I LIKE Secretary Galvez. Even in the face of really bad numbers — high Delta cases and low vaccine supply — he remains an eternal optimist.
And his optimism not only knows no bounds but is in inverse relation to the situation at hand. With Delta surging in the National Capital Region and elsewhere, the Secretary now says (or at least that’s what a news report says he said) that NCR will achieve herd immunity by September.
Yes, you read that right — by September.
And I am sure he meant September 2021, not 2022.
Now let’s remember what “herd immunity” means.
The phrase refers to a certain percentage of the population being immunized to an infection, in the process denying the germ causing the infection enough elbow room or the space to grow, spread and mutate. Herd immunity does not, as a rule, require that every single individual be immune, but only a significant portion. And when the coronavirus first began spreading, the herd immunity level being discussed was 70% of the target population.
For the Philippines, a country of 110 million, that means 77 million. Earlier this year, Secretary Galvez kept repeating that herd immunity for the Philippines was the target by end year, ensuring a happy Christmas.
Now that target has changed — from herd immunity of the national population to herd immunity in Metro Manila.
Metro Manila (or NCR) has a population estimated to be 12 million (swelling to 15 million during office hours on weekdays). Based on Secretary Galvez’s new target, we will see 70% of 12 million or some 8.4 million Metro Manila residents immunized by end September.
Sounds good, but three issues arise.
First: of what use is herd immunity in Metro Manila if the virus rages elsewhere, where it spreads and mutates? Even if Metro Manila were to achieve herd immunity by end September, this would be negated by the virus spreading throughout Luzon, the Visayas and Mindanao, with the fearsome possibility that a Philippine variant emerges. Imagine a Philippine variant that becomes able to evade vaccine immunity? That would totally defeat the herd immunity in NCR.
The second issue is the target population level. While herd immunity discussions in relation to COVID was initially about a 70% target, the emergence of a much virulent variant in that threshold level and some experts now say that herd immunity for Delta would be at least 85% of the population. That would be about 10 million!
Which gives rise to a third issue: vaccine hesitancy. If the general population contains a segment that is vaccine hesitant, and if that number is 40% (or was) and is now, say, 20%, then how will you hit herd immunity at 85% if at least 20% of the population are anti-vaxxers? You can’t and you won’t because the numbers won’t jive. Which means you either have to force vaccinations on people, or you accept that you won’t achieve herd immunity.
Secretary Galvez has a little over 45 days to address these issues, mainly the second and the third, in order to achieve his much-lowered target of herd immunity for Metro Manila.
For our own sake let’s hope and pray that he doesn’t fail; and then he has to confront the bigger problem posed by the first issue — the consequences of a virus raging outside an “island of immunity.”
Let’s also do our part by encouraging everyone we know to get jabbed.
Unless, of course, herd immunity is achieved by other means — by getting entire populations immunized after surviving community infections!
“If you can’t immunize them, let them get infected.”
A scary thought that is, thankfully, not the way our optimistic Secretary thinks. Good luck Sir; here’s hoping the supplies come in as planned.
