‘One thing you cannot allow is to skew your projections away from what the data tells you. Optimism is one thing, rose-tinted glasses, another.’
YES, dear millennials and fillennials, it’s the second week of December, which means that most of us have the holidays on our mind. While COVID is still here, the relatively low number of new cases in the last few weeks have given us some hope about being able to gather with family and friends in lower risk settings, something that was not the case during the last Christmas season. As I am certain that no one wants to end up as a statistic come January, I hope all of you are taking the necessary precautions to keep safe while spending time with those outside of our respective bubbles.
For those in the campaign circles, the holidays will offer a momentary respite from all things election related. Those with sufficient funds will not let the season go to waste: soon enough we will see holiday greetings from candidates, wishing you and your family so-and-so. As such, shoots for the holiday ad segment should be wrapping up, and material sent to the editing room for various revisions and what-not.
That respite is, however, preceded by a nail-biter: the release of the public surveys for the last quarter. While serious campaigns do have their own internal surveys to track their progress, the public surveys still hold much value for any campaign.
For one, public surveys still have an impact on public perception. While it is true that surveys don’t win elections, it is commonly accepted that some voters still have that mentality that they do not want to vote for a losing candidate. More importantly, would-be donors also factor in the results of public surveys when it comes to determining how wide the purses would open for candidates jockeying for support. While personal relationships and history with would-be funders also play a role in how big that check will be, those who do not have that personal relationship will ultimately be measured as to their viability as determined by their placement in the public surveys.
The results of a public survey should serve to anchor the feet of campaign workers firmly to the ground. When one works in a campaign, it is quite easy to drink the kool aide — especially for those engaged in voter-facing activities (sorties, town halls, etc.) Enthusiasm from your own voters and supporters can be intoxicating; it can energize those putting in long hours.
Like your social media feed, your own perception must be supported by what the data says. While no algorithm runs our everyday experiences, it is always best to step back and assess efforts based on a combination of factors. For example, I have heard of some who tend to skew even their own internal survey results to pander to their candidate; this sort of behavior, while not commonplace, is certainly very damaging to a campaign. Also, such behavior does not bode well for the public in the sense that the candidate is not astute enough to discern the truthfulness of the information given by those around him or her.
One thing you cannot allow is to skew your projections away from what the data tells you. Optimism is one thing, rose-tinted glasses, another. In any case, we will see the complexion of the race with the release of the public surveys; it’ll give teams another chance to recalibrate their strategies going into the last stretch before the start of the official campaign period. Interesting to see who pivots, and who stays the course.
