HANOI — The World Bank on Monday trimmed its forecast for Vietnam’s economic growth in 2025 to 6.6 percent, saying activity is expected to moderate over the rest of the year as export growth normalizes after a strong first-half performance.
The World Bank’s new forecast is slightly below its March estimate of 6.8 percent, and significantly lower than the government’s official target of 8.3 percent-8.5 percent growth.
“As an export-oriented economy, Vietnam remains vulnerable to slower global growth and softening demand from major trading partners,” the World Bank said.
“Trade-policy uncertainty may also begin to weigh on business and consumer confidence.”
Vietnam’s biggest export market, the United States, imposed the 20 percent tariff on its goods from August 7, with transshipments from third countries through Vietnam facing a levy of 40 percent.
“Over the medium term, growth is projected to ease to 6.1 percent in 2026 before rebounding to 6.5 percent in 2027, supported by a recovery in global trade and Vietnam’s continued appeal as a competitive manufacturing base,” the World Bank said.
Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh on Saturday said global trade tensions, along with geopolitical and military conflicts, are affecting production and supply chains, and warned of mounting pressure on inflation and the exchange rate.
Exports in August rose 14.5 percent from a year earlier to $43.39 billion, according to government data.
