Saturday, June 14, 2025

Thailand’s factory output rises in April

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BANGKOK — Thailand’s manufacturing production index unexpectedly rose 2.17 percent in April from a year earlier on gains in manufacturing, exports of industrial goods and tourism, the industry ministry said on Friday.

But output was still down 0.75 percent over the first four months of 2025 from a year earlier, and the ministry cut its 2025 forecast range to growth of 0 percent to 1 percent from 1.5 percent to 2.5 percent.

April’s rise compared with a forecast annual fall of 2.95 percent in a Reuters poll. March’s outcome was revised to a rise of just 0.05 percent from an initially reported annual fall of 0.66 percent.

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Figures earlier this week showed exports rose by an annual 10.2 percent in April, though the commerce ministry said the outlook was challenging because of US tariffs.

Thailand is among Southeast Asian nations hardest hit by US President Donald Trump’s measures, with a 36 percent tariff if a reduction can’t be negotiated before a moratorium ends in July.

Car production in Thailand, a regional automaking centre, fell in April for the 21st straight month, down 0.4 percent on a yearly basis, data last week showed.

The Thai economy improved in April from March and the outlook remains in line with its downwardly revised forecast for this year with the impact of US tariffs to be seen in the second half, the central bank said on Friday.

The manufacturing sector improved after a sharp increase in exports drove inventory restocking, the Bank of Thailand said in a statement, but noted activity data was not yet reflecting the US tariffs, which were announced in early April.

“The second quarter started to show some impact, especially on confidence, but it’s not clear yet,” Assistant Governor Chayawadee Chai-Anant told a press conference.

“Things are changing every day. The picture will be clearer in the third and fourth quarters,” she added.

At the end of April, the Bank of Thailand cut its central-case forecast for growth this year to 2 percent, and Chayawadee said the outlook for the economy remained close to that.

“If we look at the picture now, I must say that the picture may be more in line with the reference scenario that we have given, which is around 2 percent or maybe better, because Q1 started out quite well and (global) trade negotiations were quite okay,” she said.

Thailand faces a 36 percent US tariff if a reduction can’t be negotiated before a global moratorium expires in July. The government has submitted a proposal to Washington, but has yet to hold trade talks.

Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy expanded 2.5 percent last year, lagging regional peers. 

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