NEW DELHI (Reuters). — Oil prices jumped on Monday to their highest since January as the United States’ weekend move to join Israel in attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities stoked supply concerns.
Brent crude futures LCOc1 were up 72 cents or 0.93 percent to $77.73 a barrel as of 0806 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 advanced 71 cents or 0.96 percent to $74.55.
Both contracts jumped by more than 3 percent earlier in the session to $81.40 and $78.40, respectively, touching five-month highs before giving up some gains.
The rise in prices came after US President Donald Trump said he had “obliterated” Iran’s main nuclear sites in strikes over the weekend, joining an Israeli assault in an escalation of conflict in the Middle East as Tehran vowed to defend itself.
Iran is OPEC’s third-largest crude producer.
Market participants expect further price gains amid mounting fears that an Iranian retaliation may include a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global crude supply flows.
“The current geopolitical escalation provides the fundamental catalyst for (Brent) prices to traverse higher and potentially spiral towards $100, with $120 per barrel appearing increasingly plausible,” said Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of New Delhi-based research firm SS WealthStreet.
Iran said on Monday that the US attack on its nuclear sites expanded the range of legitimate targets for its armed forces and called US President Donald Trump a “gambler” for joining Israel’s military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
“The risks of damage to oil infrastructure … have multiplied,” said Sparta Commodities senior analyst June Goh.
Although there are alternative pipeline routes out of the region, there will still be crude volume that cannot be fully exported out if the Strait of Hormuz becomes inaccessible. Shippers will increasingly stay out of the region, she added.
Goldman Sachs said in a Sunday report that Brent could briefly peak at $110 per barrel if oil flows through the critical waterway were halved for a month, and remain down by 10 percent for the following 11 months.
The bank still assumed no significant disruption to oil and natural gas supply, adding global incentives to try and prevent a sustained and very large disruption.
Brent has risen 13 percent since the conflict began on June 13, while WTI has gained around 10 percent.
Given the Strait of Hormuz is indispensable for Iran’s own oil exports, which are a vital source of its national revenues, a sustained closure would inflict severe economic damage on Iran itself, making it a double-edged sword, Sachdeva added.
Meanwhile, Japan on Monday called for de-escalation of the conflict in Iran, while a South Korean vice industry minister voiced concern over the potential impact of the strikes on the country’s trade.
Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in Moscow on Monday, Russian Interfax agency said, citing Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov.
