WASHINGTON – The planned summit between Presidents Lee Jae Myung and Donald Trump is expected to be a crucial test for the South Korea-U.S. alliance in setting its future trajectory, as Washington is pushing to reshape the bilateral security and economic partnerships in the face of an increasingly assertive China.
Lee and Trump are set to hold their first in-person summit at the White House on Monday, August 25, as South Korea and the United States seek to forge a shared understanding of where their partnership should be headed under a joint effort to “modernize” the alliance.
The high-stakes summit will come against the backdrop of the Trump administration’s growing demand that South Korea and other Asian allies boost their defense spending and undertake greater security burdens, while the U.S. focuses on deterring the “pacing threat” from its biggest strategic rival, China.
Keen attention is fixated on how Seoul will navigate tricky “alliance modernization” issues, including Washington’s potential move to readjust the size, role, composition and operational scope of the 28,500-strong U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) in an effort to better deter China.
“(The summit) really stands to be a litmus test for the new administration in Seoul as well as an opportunity to sort of set the trend for the bilateral relationship over the coming years,” Arius Derr, director of communications at the Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI), said during a press meeting on Thursday.
Hard issues aside, the summit will be a crucial opportunity for the two leaders to build personal rapport, experts said, at a time when Seoul hopes to further strengthen cooperation with Washington on North Korean nuclear threats, economic security, trade and other fronts.
During their first phone call in June, signs of their budding friendship were detected as Lee and Trump talked about a set of mutually relatable topics — their experiences with assassination threats on the campaign trail and their shared interest in golf.
But an array of challenging alliance issues are expected to figure prominently in the summit. Chief among them is Washington’s apparent push for greater USFK “strategic flexibility” to expand its operational scope beyond the Korean Peninsula to cover China-related contingencies, including a Taiwan conflict.
Seoul and Washington already issued a joint statement on strategic flexibility in 2006, which stated that South Korea respects the “necessity” for strategic flexibility, while the U.S. respects Seoul’s position that it will not be involved in a regional conflict against the will of the Korean people.
Observers said that Washington might want a more explicit South Korean understanding of the strategic flexibility concept — a move that would test Lee’s “pragmatic” approach that values the alliance with the U.S. as the “foundation” of Seoul’s security and foreign policy, but leaves open room for better ties with China.
To what extent Trump will push the China-related issue remains to be seen as Trump has touted his “great” relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping at a time when his administration seeks to strike a trade agreement with the Asian superpower.
The USFK issue is expected to be part of the broad alliance modernization agenda.
Alliance modernization is not a novel concept for the allies as their treaty partnership, forged in the crucible of the 1950-53 Korean War, has undergone adjustments in line with America’s policy changes, shifting regional and global security landscapes, South Korea’s growing military capabilities and its pursuit of an enhanced role in what has been an asymmetric partnership.
“(Alliance modernization) refers to potential changes in the U.S. force posture on the Korean Peninsula that could include the reduction in ground troops, enhancement of air and naval capabilities, greater South Korean defense spending, changes in the cost-sharing arrangement (and the) return of wartime operational control (OPCON),” Victor Cha, president of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told reporters on Wednesday.
Speculation has persisted that Washington might weigh the idea of a ground troop reduction in the Army-centric USFK as it apparently sees naval and air force components as more suited for potential operations to address China-related contingencies.
The alliance modernization discussions have proceeded as the Lee administration is expected to pursue the retaking of wartime OPCON within its five-year term – a goal that some observers say might fall in line with Washington’s push for allies to take greater responsibility for their own defense.
Seoul and Washington have been working on the “conditions-based” OPCON transfer. Conditions include South Korea’s capabilities to lead combined Korea-U.S. forces, its strike and air defense capabilities, and a regional security environment conducive to such a handover.
South Korea handed over operational control of its troops to the U.S.-led U.N. Command during the 1950-53 Korean War. Control was then transferred to the two allies’ Combined Forces Command when the command was launched in 1978. Wartime operational control still remains in U.S. hands, while South Korea retook peacetime OPCON in 1994.
A defense spending issue could also be a point of contention at the summit.
The Trump administration has been expected to demand that South Korea move toward what it has called the “global standard” of spending 5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) on defense — a goal that North Atlantic Treaty Organization member states agreed to achieve by 2035.
South Korea’s defense budget this year stands at around 61.2 trillion won (US$44.2 billion), or about 2.32 percent of its GDP, according to Seoul’s defense ministry.
How to lure North Korea back to a denuclearization track will be another key alliance issue at the summit.
Both Lee and Trump have expressed their willingness to resume dialogue with Pyongyang, but the reclusive state has reiterated its rejection of any denuclearization dialogue at a time when it has relied on Russia for food, fuel, security, technology and other necessities.
The leaders’ anticipated show of unity against North Korea’s nuclear threats could strike a sour note with the recalcitrant regime, which has already responded angrily to the allies’ ongoing Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise despite the scaling-down of the exercise’s field training portion.
For Trump, his summit with Lee will be an opportunity to underscore South Korea’s pledges for investments and industrial cooperation as his America First policy success, observers said.
Expectations are that Lee will announce new plans for investments in the U.S., while more clarity will be given to last month’s broad-brush trade deal, under which Washington agreed to lower “reciprocal” tariffs on Korea to 15 percent from the proposed 25 percent in return for Korea’s investment pledges and other commitments.
The summit will also be a chance to “reset” South Korea’s role and status in Trump’s “hierarchy,” Scott Snyder, president and CEO at the KEI, said, noting South Korea’s apparently “diminished” influence under the Trump administration considering indicators, including the fact that no close Trump associate or prominent figure has been appointed as U.S. ambassador to Korea. (Yonhap)
