By Gavin Maguire
LITTLETON, Colorado- Coal use, imports and coal-fired emissions have all climbed to record highs in Vietnam this year despite ongoing efforts to roll out clean generation capacity across the country.
The continuing growth in coal dependence in Vietnam highlights the difficulty of dislodging coal from the power systems of fast-growing countries that rely on cheap and abundant energy sources to generate economic competitiveness.
Vietnam has been a major beneficiary of the re-routing of supply chains away from China in recent years, and has seen rapid growth in its manufacturing base and national exports as companies establish and expand production in the country.
In response, Vietnam’s gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow by twice the global average through 2029, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
But in order to ensure sufficient low-cost energy for this fast-growing manufacturing sector, Vietnam’s power producers have had to prioritize the expansion of fossil fuel-powered generation over power sector decarbonization efforts, which remain part of longer-term plans for the country.
The rapid swell in coal use has seen Vietnam overtake South Korea in coal-fired emissions this year, and has put it on track to finish 2024 as the fourth-largest coal emitter in Asia behind China, India and Japan.
Coal generated a record 64.6 percent share of Vietnam’s electricity generation in April, according to energy think tank Ember, which is up sharply from an average generation share of 46 percent for 2023.
Over the first four months of 2024, total coal-fired electricity generation was 57 terawatt hours (TWh), which was 42.5 percent more than during the same months in 2023.
Resulting emissions were up 34 percent to 53.6 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO2), Ember data shows.
A key driver behind this year’s surge in coal use has been an unusually steep decline in electricity generation from hydro dams, which accounted for an average of around 15 percent of electricity output so far this year compared to 25 percent during the same period in 2023.
Vietnam’s power firms have also trimmed output from natural gas through April by about 15 percent from the same months in 2023.
The reduced output from hydro and gas plants has helped cement coal’s status as the leading power source in Vietnam, especially during the recent heat wave across Asia that boosted demand for air conditioning throughout the region.
To keep pace with the accelerated coal burn in power stations, Vietnam boosted thermal coal imports by 71 percent over the first five months of 2024 from the same period in 2023, data from Kpler shows. – Reuters
