The United States is set to become the world’s biggest liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter in 2022, surpassing Qatar and Australia, and may hold that title for years to come.
In a year when China and other large economies in Europe and Asia scrambled to source enough supply for heating and power generation, the United States was sitting on a bevy of supply – one that will grow in coming years.
Global LNG demand has hit record highs each year since 2015, due mostly to surging demand in China and the rest of Asia. Much of that global appetite has been met by steadily rising US LNG exports, which have reached new records every year since 2016 and is poised to continue in 2022.
The US Energy Information Administration projects US LNG exports will reach 11.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2022. That would account for roughly 22 percent of expected world LNG demand of 53.3 bcfd next year, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs and would outpace both Australia and Qatar, the two largest exporters at present.
One billion cubic feet is enough gas for about 5 million US homes for a day.
The United States should remain the biggest LNG exporter by capacity until around 2025, when Qatar could regain the lead as its North Field expansion starts to enter service. But if some US developers start building new LNG export plants, the United States may not give up the crown.
Major US developers like Cheniere Energy LNG.A, the largest US exporter, have signed numerous long-term deals to sell LNG in recent months that should enable them to secure the financing needed to go forward with additional multibillion-dollar projects.
Many of those long-term contracts came from Chinese buyers.
“After years of avoiding a commitment to buy US LNG, Chinese companies have finally made their move,” said Nikos Tsafos at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
So far in 2021, most US LNG exports went to Asia with about 13 percent going to South Korea, 13 percent to China and 10 percent to Japan, according to US energy data. Those were the same top three destinations in 2020 when 13 percent of US LNG went to South Korea, 12 percent to Japan and 9 percent to China.
