By Karen Braun
NAPERVILLE, Illinois- Over the last decade or so, annual US soybean use was often split somewhat evenly between exports and domestic processing, though the split is unusually unbalanced this year as exports slip and crush increases.
Early government estimates show a potential record 2024 US soybean crop allowing for bigger exports in the 2024-25 marketing year starting Sept. 1, but the total use allocations of exports and crush are expected to be very similar to 2023-24, despite heavier supplies.
This emphasizes the rising focus on domestic soybean processing amid supportive renewable fuel policies, though it also acknowledges US bean exporters’ distant second place to No. 1 Brazil and its stranglehold over stagnating Chinese demand.
US crush far outpacing exports is not at all a new concept and was in fact the norm in the late 2000s and earlier, just before the dual explosion of China’s bean demand and Brazil’s crop and export potential.
The US Department of Agriculture last week tentatively forecast 2024-25 US soybean exports at 1.875 billion bushels, up 9 percent from 2023-24 but 12 percent lighter than the average of the previous three years.
The 2024-25 crop at 4.5 billion bushels would be up 8 percent on the year and narrowly edge 2021-22’s record, and crush is seen rising to an all-time high of 2.4 billion bushels, up 4 percent on the year.
Higher carry-in supplies plus the large crop are seen outpacing the rise in demand, sending 2024-25 ending stocks to a five-year high of 435 million bushels, which outside of an active trade-war year with top importer China would be the largest US bean carryout since 2006-07.
