NEW YORK- US crude oil output is set to grow slightly more than earlier estimates for this year and next, the US Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday, while also hiking its global and domestic oil price forecasts.
US crude production will rise by around 280,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year to 13.21 million bpd, and by 510,000 bpd to 13.72 million bpd in 2025, the EIA forecast.
It had previously estimated output to rise by 260,000 bpd this year and by 460,000 bpd next year. The agency’s view on US consumption was unchanged at a 200,000-bpd increase to 20.4 million bpd in 2024.
The increase in production forecasts was likely due to the assumption of higher prices, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.
EIA now expects Brent crude oil prices to average $88.55 a barrel this year, up from its earlier forecast of $87, while US West Texas Intermediate crude prices are now expected to average $83.78 a barrel in 2024. In March, the EIA had forecast WTI prices would average $82.15 a barrel this year.
The hike reflects expectations of strong global oil inventory draws in the current quarter and ongoing geopolitical risks, the EIA said in its monthly short-term energy outlook.
Brent crude futures traded above $89 a barrel and WTI futures traded north of $85 on Tuesday, over 16 percent and 19 percent higher so far this year.
The EIA also noted that it underestimated global demand for the past two years. The agency now estimates world oil and liquid fuels consumption at around 99.94 million bpd in 2022, about 790,000 bpd above its prior forecasts.
Estimates for 2023 were raised to 101.96 million bpd from 101 million earlier, the revisions driven by non-OECD countries. For 2024, EIA now expects global consumption at around 102.91 million bpd, 480,000 bpd higher than its previous forecast.
“The sources of growth remain the same; non-OECD Asian countries – particularly China and India – drive global liquid fuels demand growth in our forecast, although we also expect significant growth in the Middle East and United States,” the EIA said.
Meanwhile, EIA on Tuesday revised its April coal exports forecast downward by 33 percent , and lowered its view for May by 20 percent due to the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore and resulting port closure.
The EIA had expected US coal exports to rise by about 1 percent this year, but now expects a 6 percent decrease from last year’s levels following the bridge collapse.
US coal shipments slowed following the closure of the Port of Baltimore, the second-largest coal export channel in the country, after a huge cargo ship crashed into the bridge on March 26.
