Thailand’s LNG boom risks slowing Southeast Asia energy transition

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By Gavin Maguire

LITTLETON, Colorado- Thailand has jumped from eleventh to eighth in the world ranking for imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), after purchases through October soared 25 percent  from the same period in 2022.

Thailand imported 22.9 million cubic meters (MCM) of LNG through October, compared with a record 19.8 MCM in all of 2022, flows data from Kpler shows, helping it crack the top 10 of super-chilled fuel importers for the first time.

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Thailand’s robust appetite for LNG contrasts with substantial declines in LNG purchases by other major LNG importers this year, cheering key LNG exporters such as Qatar, Australia and Malaysia.

But Thailand’s voracious appetite for gas is a growing concern for supporters of Southeast Asia’s energy transition, as Thailand is viewed as a regional power that can influence others in terms of energy transition ambitions and strategies.

The main driver of Thailand’s LNG imports – which have jumped by 127 percent  since 2019 – is its gas-heavy electricity generation system.

Natural gas has accounted for about 67 percent  of Thailand’s total electricity generation this year, according to data from think tank Ember. That compares with a gas share of about 30 percent  for Southeast Asia as a whole, and around 10 percent  for all of Asia.

Thailand’s gas-powered average is up from about 63 percent  in 2022, as its power firms have increased gas-fired output this year to offset a decline in coal’s share of the generation mix from nearly 20 percent  in 2022 to about 16 percent  this year.

Reduced coal output has helped cut Thailand’s coal-fired emissions by close to 2.5 million tons over the first eight months of 2023 compared with the same period in 2022, Ember data shows.

But lower coal emissions have been more than offset by a nearly 5 million ton jump in emissions from gas-fired power generation over the same period.

As a result, Thailand’s total power sector emissions have climbed to new highs this year, despite curbs to coal generation, raising concern for climate trackers hoping for region-wide efforts to reverse emissions trends.

As the second largest Southeast Asian economy behind Indonesia, Thailand is viewed as a regional bellwether in terms of overall economic momentum and energy transition potential.

Indonesia, the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, has for decades relied on its domestic coal mining sector to provide fuel for its power stations, and uses coal to generate about 62 percent  of its electricity.

 

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