BANGKOK- Thailand’s exports are expected to rise 1 percent to 3 percent in 2025, unchanged from a previous forecast, with trade wars and geopolitical issues a major risk, the national shippers’ council said on Tuesday.
For 2024, the group expects export growth of 4.5 percent to 5 percent, up from a 4 percent rise projected earlier.
Exports, a key driver of Thailand’s economy, rose 8.2 percent in November from a year earlier and increased an annual 5.1 percent in the first 11 months of 2024.
“Exports in 2024 should be somewhat worry-free … but 2025 is more exciting as there are many risk factors,” council chairman Chaichan Chareonsuk told a press conference.
“The trade war is certainly the main risk. The geopolitical war is not over yet,” he added.
Exports might increase 1 percent to 2 percent in the first quarter of 2025 but US President-elect Donald Trump’s policies would need to be monitored, Chaichan said.
Council Vice Chairman Suparp Suwanpimolkul said the group was hoping Thailand’s central bank would cut interest rates in the first quarter to help ease the interest burden of smaller businesses.
“The baht may also be too strong if we don’t cut interest rates,” he added.
The baht was little changed at 34.6 per dollar on Tuesday after reaching its lowest level in six weeks on Monday.
Last month, the central bank left its key interest rate unchanged at 2.25 percent, after a surprise cut in the previous review in October.
On Monday, the central bank said maintaining interest rates was a robust policy amid high uncertainty, but it was ready to adjust the policy if the economic outlook changed. The next rate review is on Feb. 26.
Thailand could beat a government forecast of 2 percent to 3 percent export growth in 2025, the commerce minister earlier said as he played down concerns about the potential impact of the second Trump administration on local exporters.
Pichai Naripthaphan also said a weaker baht, closer to 36 or 37 per dollar from current levels under 35 per dollar, would be more appropriate for exporters.
“I’m not too worried. I think we can handle it. If Thailand is hit, others will be hit harder than us,” Pichai said about possible new US trade policies after meeting with business representatives on the outlook for shipments.
