Thai govt sees rice exports falling over 20% this year

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BANGKOK- Thailand’s rice exports are seen falling about 24 percent to 7.5 million metric tons this year, the commerce ministry said on Tuesday.

The lower forecast was due to the resumption of exports from India and improved volumes from other rice producers, Arada Fuangtong, head of the ministry’s foreign trade department, told a media conference.

Easing drought conditions are supporting yields and major importers such as Indonesia may have less demand, the ministry said.

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Thailand, the world’s second-largest rice exporter after India, shipped 9.95 million tons of the crop in 2024, its highest level in six years and up 13.4 percent on an annual basis.

The assessment echoed the forecast of the association of Thai rice exporters made earlier this month.

Chookiat Ophaswongse of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, told Reuters Thailand’s rice exports will likely drop by 25 percent in 2025 from last year partly due to more shipments from India.

More competition from India and less demand from Indonesia attributed to the forecast drop, he said.

Thailand exported 8.35 million tons of rice between January and October last year, an increase of 20 percent over the same period the previous year, the Commerce Ministry earlier reported.

The value of exported rice in those 10 months also rose 40 percent year on year to $5.41 billion or 191.03 billion baht, Arada Fuangtong, director-general of the Department of Foreign Trade, said.

White rice is responsible for 62 percent of the total exports or 5.18 million tons, followed by jasmine rice at 1.37 million tons, steamed rice at 1.01 million tons, fragrant rice at 0.54 million tons, sticky rice at 0.23 million tons and brown rice at 0.02 million tons.

Arada said Thailand’s five biggest export markets are Indonesia, which imported 1.12 million tons of rice, followed by Iraq (0.95 million tons), South Africa (0.72 million tons), the United States (0.7 million tons), and the Philippines (0.49 million tons).

The department has set the target of rice exports in 2024 at 9 million tons, said Arada, adding that by combining the 10-month tally and export applications filed in November, total rice exports from January to November are anticipated to have already reached 9.27 million tons.

“There is a chance that rice exports this year could reach the 10 million tons milestone, as demand in overseas markets is expected to increase during the Christmas and New Year holidays,” she said. “Some importers might also increase their orders to prepare for the Chinese New Year in late January.”

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