BANGKOK- Thai exports grew at their fastest rate in 28 months in July as demand rose in key markets, data showed on Tuesday, and the commerce ministry maintained its forecast for a small increase in shipments in 2024.
Exports, a key driver of Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy, rose 15.2 percent in July from a year earlier, the biggest increase since March 2022.
The surge compared with a forecast 6.0 percent increase in a Reuters poll, and followed a 0.3 percent annual decline in June.
Imports rose 13.1 percent in July from a year earlier, compared with a forecast increase of 2.8 percent in the poll. That led to a trade deficit of $1.37 billion in July, larger than the forecast of a $0.52 billion deficit.
In the January-July period, exports rose 3.8 percent from the same period in 2023, while imports were up 4.4 percent, resulting in a trade deficit of $6.6 billion for the period.
The ministry maintained its export growth target for the full year at 1 percent to 2 percent.
A stronger baht currency would affect exports in August, Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, head of the ministry’s Trade Policy and Strategy Office, told a news conference.
Shipments to the United States rose 26.3 percent in July from a year earlier and exports to China rose 9.9 percent, but those to Japan fell 2.5 percent, the ministry said.
July shipments of agro-industrial products rose 8.7 percent from a year earlier, while rice export volumes declined 0.3 percent year-on-year to 604,000 metric tons the ministry said in a statement.
Thailand’s economic growth likely gathered a bit of pace in the second quarter thanks to higher government spending, but a tepid recovery in tourism and high household debt cloud the overall outlook, according to economists polled by Reuters.
The economy was forecast to expand 2.1 percent in the April-June period, median prediction in the Aug. 8-15 poll showed, up from 1.5 percent in the preceding quarter.
On a quarterly basis, gross domestic product (GDP) likely grew a seasonally adjusted 0.9 percent from 1.1 percent in the first quarter, a smaller sample of forecasts showed.
Forecasts for the data due on Aug. 19 range from 1.8 percent to 2.8 percent.
Last month, the World Bank downgraded Thailand’s 2024 GDP growth forecast to 2.4 percent from 2.8 percent, citing weaker-than-expected goods exports and public investments.
While exports rose only 0.3 percent year-on-year in June, they grew 5.8 percent in April and 7.8 percent in May.
Apart from weak global demand and a slowdown in China – the country’s major trading partner – Thailand’s vital tourism sector was also yet to recover to its pre-pandemic levels.
