TAIPEI- Taiwan’s exports likely rose for the 25th straight month in July though at a slower pace than in June, amid fears of a global recession, uncertainties due to the Ukraine conflict and COVID-19 flare-ups in China, according to a Reuters poll.
Taiwan, a global hub for chip production and a key supplier to Apple Inc, is one of Asia’s leading exporters of technology goods, with the trade data seen as an important gauge of world demand for tech gadgets.
Exports last month were estimated to have risen 11.65 percent from a year earlier, a Reuters poll of 10 analysts showed on Thursday, slower than the 15.2 percent jump in June.
The export forecasts ranged between 4.5 percent and 19.0 percent higher, reflecting uncertainties over the global economic recovery, supply chain disruptions due to pandemic lockdowns in eastern China and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Taiwan’s Finance Ministry predicted July exports to increase by 10 percent to 13 percent from a year earlier.
Separately, the consumer price index was expected to have risen 3.51 percent in July from a year earlier, a slightly slower rate than 3.59 percent in June.
Taiwan’s exports rose in June on sustained demand for technology products even as shipments to China weakened, and the government said the outlook was good as companies ramp up for the end-of-year holiday season despite concerns over Ukraine and inflation.
Exports rose 15.2 percent in June from a year earlier to $42.2 billion, the Ministry of Finance said, the second-highest monthly amount on record and up for the 24th consecutive month.
That was faster than the 12.5 percent rise recorded in May, and better than the 13.55 percent expansion forecast from a Reuters survey of analysts.
The ministry attributed the June growth to strong technology demand, especially for chips, with supply chain problems easing.
However, June exports to China, Taiwan’s largest trading partner, shrank an annual 4.5 percent to $15.43 billion, after a 0.8 percent rise in May, suggesting some continuing drag on China’s economy from disruptions caused by COVID-19 outbreaks.
Overall exports of electronics components rose 19 percent in June to $17.27 billion, the second-highest monthly figure on record, with semiconductor exports jumping 21.2 percent from a year earlier.
Many companies expect global chip shortages to last at least for the rest of the year, which will continue to bolster Taiwanese semiconductor firms’ order books.
The finance ministry warned of continued uncertainty over the war in Ukraine and inflationary pressures, but said the outlook remained bright, with strong demand for semiconductors and the peak export season about to begin for the year-end holidays in the West.
Exports to the United States were up 27.9 percent, much faster than a 15.5 percent jump recorded the previous month.
China will release its June trade data next week, with investors focusing on how quickly its economy and supply chains can recover from COVID lockdown shocks this spring.
Taiwan’s June imports rose 19.2 percent to $37.56 billion, the third-highest monthly figure on record, though worse than economists’ expectations of a 24 percent jump, after an increase of 26.7 percent in May.
Taiwan could see July exports increase by 10 percent to 13 percent from a year earlier, the finance ministry said. — Reuters
