TAIPEI- Taiwan’s exports in January likely fell for the fifth month in a row amid fears of a global recession, uncertainties due to the war in Ukraine, and the COVID situation in China impacting tech demand, according to a Reuters poll.
Taiwan, a global hub for chip production and a key supplier to Apple Inc, is one of Asia’s leading exporters of technology goods. The trade data is seen as an important gauge of world demand for tech gadgets.
Exports were estimated to have dropped 20 percent in January from a year earlier, a Reuters poll of 18 analysts showed on Monday, a faster rate than the 12.1 percent annual contraction seen in December.
The export forecasts varied widely, projecting a contraction of between 12.2 percent and 30 percent. The variation reflected uncertainties over the global economy, supply chain disruptions due to COVID cases in China, and the fallout of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Taiwan’s finance ministry said last month that January exports could be down by 20 percent-24 percent from a year earlier.
Separately, the consumer price index was expected to have been 2.69 percent higher in January than a year earlier, rising slower than the 2.71 percent annual rate seen in December, according to the poll.
The trade data will be released on Tuesday followed by the inflation data on Thursday.
Taiwan’s exports fell for a fourth straight month in December due to the worsening state of the global economy, as inflation and rising interest rates weighed on demand, and benefits from China’s relaxation of its COVID controls had still to emerge.
Exports dropped 12.1 percent by value last month from a year earlier to $35.75 billion, the lowest in 20 months, the Ministry of Finance said.
That followed a 13.1 percent drop in November, and was slightly better than Reuters poll forecast for a 13.3 percent contraction.
For December, the ministry said global demand was slowing gradually, due to inflationary pressures and interest rate rises in major economies, as well as disruptions to factory production in China amid a spike of COVID-19 cases after Beijing dismantled its zero-COVID regime.
The ministry saw Taiwan’s exports continuing to decline in the first quarter as it expected the global economy to “slow significantly”, with major uncertainties posed by both the war in Ukraine and the spread of COVID-19 in China.
“The positive demand driven by new technologies and rising silicon content in end products would not be able to offset these negative impacts,” the ministry said in a statement.
Taiwan’s total exports of electronics components in December fell 1.4 percent to $16.04 billion, with semiconductor exports up 0.8 percent from a year earlier. — Reuters
