TAIPEI- Taiwan’s export orders likely contracted in September as global demand for technology cools, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.
The median forecast from a poll of 15 economists was for export orders to fall 5.5 percent from a year earlier. Forecasts ranged from an expansion of 0.7 percent to a contraction of 10 percent.
The island’s export orders, a bellwether of global technology demand, unexpectedly expanded in August on strong demand for technology and more consumer electronics product launches such as iPhones even as the island’s largest market China faced continued headwinds.
The government has predicted last month’s orders to be between 7 percent and 9.4 percent lower than those of September 2021, though that will also be off a high base.
Taiwan’s export orders are a leading indicator of demand for hi-tech gadgets and Asian exports, and typically lead actual exports by two to three months.
The island’s manufacturers, including the world’s largest contract chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd, are a key part of the global supply chain for technology giants including Apple Inc.
Taiwan’s exports fell in September for the first time in more than two years on weakness in demand in major market China and stagnant consumer spending even as chip demand held up, with the government predicting more turbulence ahead.
Exports fell 5.3 percent in September from a year earlier to $37.53 billion, the Ministry of Finance said, logging a contraction for the first time since June 2020.
That was compared to the 2 percent rise recorded in August, and well below a forecast for a 1.5 percent increase in a Reuters poll.
Ministry official Beatrice Tsai said exports were coming off a high base last year, when the COVID-19 pandemic boosted demand for work-from-home gear like tablets, but the “root case” was the effect of high inflation, monetary policy tightening, and stagnant consumer demand from the cooling of China’s economy.
Exports to China, Taiwan’s largest trading partner, fell an annual 13.3 percent to $15.17 billion in September, after a 9.9 percent contraction in August, in a sign of the continued economic problems there.
