LONDON — Container shipping groups seem strangely immune to Donald Trump’s trade wars. The U.S. president’s tariffs have pushed the average U.S. import duty to 19 percent — the highest since 1933 — yet shares in Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and Asian rivals like Evergreen, HMM and Cosco Shipping have rallied since the levies were first threatened in April. Yet the sector will likely face stormier seas in the coming months.
Trump’s tariffs are already affecting world trade. As the world’s largest exporter, China saw its trade in goods to the US fall 24 percent year-on-year in the second quarter, to $100 billion. In contrast, exports to the rest of the world rose 11 percent, reaching a record $856 billion, fuelled by strong demand in markets like Europe and Southeast Asia. Some of this stems from stockpiling ahead of August’s US hikes. But it reflects deeper changes. Goods once bound for the US are being re-exported via hubs like Vietnam and Thailand, or sold directly into other markets. Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc calls this an “acceleration of globalization” helped by the growing clout of China’s domestic champions like BYD.
