Russian wheat export prices declined last week amid reduced demand from major importers and continuing unofficial restrictions on the minimum selling price, while analysts see a drop in supply volumes.
The price of 12.5 percent -protein Russian wheat scheduled for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in early November was $230 per metric ton last week, down $5 on a week before, the IKAR agriculture consultancy reported.
The Sovecon agriculture consultancy sees the price for this class of wheat at $238-242 per ton FOB, down $1 on a week before.
Russia exported 0.88 million tons of grain last week compared to 1.22 million tons a week earlier, including 0.85 million tons of wheat, compared with 1.04 million tons a week earlier, Sovecon wrote in its weekly note, citing port data.
The first estimate of wheat exports in October is 3.9-4.4 million tons compared with 4.5 million tons a year ago and 4.1 million tons on average. Wheat exports in September are assessed at 5.0 million tons.
“Outstanding wheat export sales continue to tank. Week on week they dropped by 1.4 million tons to 2.6 million tons. This is the lowest level since July 2023. We believe that it’s mainly related to AgMin’s attempts to limit exports at levels below their price floor,” Sovecon said.
The wheat harvest as of Oct. 5 totaled 90.0 million tons (versus 102.7 million tons а year earlier) from 26.8 million hectares (versus 28.5 million hectares), with an average yield of 3.36 tons per hectare (3.60 tons per hectare).
Sowing of winter grains was carried out on an area of 12.6 million hectares, up from 10.8 million hectares a year earlier, Sovecon wrote.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry last week raised its forecast for the 2023 harvest – to 135 million tons of grain, including 90 million tons of wheat.
