CANBERRA- Australian farmers are likely to plant more wheat and barley this year, thanks to Chinese demand and wet weather on the country’s east coast, while canola sowing should fall amid lower profit margins and dry conditions in the west, analysts said.
Australia is the world’s second largest wheat exporter and a key supplier of barley and canola, with the size of its harvests impacting global supplies and prices.
Wheat and barley production is likely to rise by several million metric tons in the 2024/25 season ending in June next year, while canola output could drop by about a million tons, analysts forecast.
“The east coast is looking really good, with lots of rain,” said Ole Houe, director of advisory services at IKON Commodities in Sydney.
With sowing just getting underway, additional planting in eastern Australia should boost wheat area by 1 percent -3 percent and barley area by 3 percent -15 percent , while canola area could decline by 4 percent -20 percent from 2023/24, analysts estimated.
Dryness in Western Australia is likely to hit canola hardest because it is planted earlier and offers a smaller profit margin than wheat or barley.
“Canola area will be the first to get cut … If dry conditions (in Western Australia) push into May, we will start to see wheat and barley area pared back too,” said Rod Baker at Australian Crop Forecasters in Perth.
