The Philippines is one of four countries in Asia expected to see especially strong growth, the DHL Trade Atlas 2025 report released on Friday showed, adding that the Philippines’ total trade value is expected to grow by 7.4 percent between 2024 and 2029.
Steven Altman, senior research scholar and director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern, said in volume terms, this translates into an estimated increase of $88 billion in trade value.
In 2024, trade value of the Philippines amounted to $204.6 billion.
DHL Trade Atlas 2025 said between 2024 and 2029, four countries in Asia are forecast to rank among the top 30 for both speed and scale of trade growth: India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines.
More notably, the Philippines is set to leap 114 positions to rank 15th on the speed dimension, and rise from 68th to 30th on the scale dimension, the report added.
“The prospects of Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines are bright as they have displayed substantial potential to benefit from supply chain shifts and diversification strategies,” the report said.
DHL and the New York University Stern School of Business have released the latest DHL Trade Atlas 2025, providing a comprehensive analysis of the most important trends in global trade.
The report said Asia’s trade outlook remains positive, mirroring global trade, which is forecast to grow faster over the next five years compared to the preceding decade.
South Asia as well as Southeast Asia regions are also set to outperform other regions in terms of trade growth.
“As we look towards the future of trade in Asia, it’s clear how trade growth has proven surprisingly resilient in the face of recent disruptions. With the ongoing diversification of supply chains that continues to reshape the commerce landscape, Asia has steadfastly emerged as a key player in the global market,” said Ken Lee, chief executive officer, Asia Pacific, DHL Express. “However, we must approach this promising outlook with a measured perspective, recognizing the uncertainties and volatility that continue to characterize the global business environment. As businesses diversify supply chains, it is essential they stay innovative in their strategy and proactive in seeking out new routes to growth.”
In the next five years, India is anticipated to retain its third-place rank on the scale dimension as well as jump 15 spots to the 17th position on the speed dimension as its compound annual trade volume growth rate rises from 5.2 percent to 7.2 percent. Additionally, India may also deliver 6 percent of the world’s trade growth, behind China (12 percent) and the United States (10 percent).
Vietnam is expected to maintain a 6.5 percent compound annual trade volume growth rate over the 2024-2029 period and promote one position to rank fifth on the scale dimension. Indonesia is predicted to retain its 12th place on the scale rankings, while rising from 33rd to 25th in the speed rankings.
According to the report, South Asia and the Asean regions are forecasted to deliver the fastest trade volume growth among major world regions from 2024 to 2029 with compounded annual growth rate of 5.6 percent and 5.0 percent, respectively. Trade growth is also expected to accelerate substantially compared to the previous five-year period in these regions. Other regions such as North America and Europe are forecast to grow at rates of 2.7 percent.
The DHL Trade Atlas also finds that the center of gravity of world trade has shifted. The shares of trade conducted by the world’s major geographic regions has changed since 2000, with the most dramatic change observed in Asian economies. Between 2000 and 2024, the share of world trade borne by South and Central Asia rose from 2 percent to 5 percent. However, a major region like Europe saw its share of world trade decrease from 41 percent to 36 percent for the same period.
Despite widespread interest in nearshoring and producing goods closer to customers, the DHL Trade Atlas 2025 demonstrates that trade has not become more regionalized overall. Actual trade flows indicate the opposite trend. In the first nine months of 2024, the average distance traversed for all traded goods reached a record 5,000 kilometers, compared to just over 4,500 kilometers in 2000. This development can be attributed to the fact that Europe and North America have increasingly traded with Asia, as “Factory Asia” becomes central to global production networks.
Recent forecasts predict goods trade will grow at a compound annual rate of 3.1 percent from 2024 to 2029. This roughly aligns with GDP growth and represents modestly faster trade growth compared to the previous decade. Even if the new U.S. administration implements all of its proposed tariff increases and other countries retaliate, global trade is still expected to grow over the next five years – but at a much slower pace.
“While threats to the global trading system must be taken seriously, global trade has shown great resilience because of the large benefits that it delivers for economies and societies,” said Altman.
“While the US could pull back from trade – at a significant cost – other countries are not likely to follow the US down that path because smaller countries would suffer even more in a global retreat from trade.”
