Global trade added $1 trillion in 2024, nearing $33 trillion, driven by robust growth in services, according to the latest Global Trade Update released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
Based on the report, however, the Philippines was less dependent on China as total trade went down by 2.4 percent in 2024.
Based on national statistics, the dependence of an economy on another is calculated as the ratio of their bilateral trade over the total trade of the dependent economy.
Q3 trade growth was led by developed countries, while developing regions lagged behind and trade growth in East Asia stalled.
Information and Communications Technology (ICT) and apparel drove trade growth in Q3, while trade in automotive declined.
Global trade is expected to maintain its upward trajectory in the second half of 2024. Trade in goods increased by approximately 1.5 percent quarter-over-quarter in Q3, while services trade grew by around 1 percent.
According to the UNCTAD, this positive momentum is expected to continue into Q4. As a result, global trade is set to exceed its 2022 record, reaching nearly $33 trillion in 2024.
“This record high is largely driven by an annual 7 percent increase in services trade, while goods trade is projected to grow by about 2 percent in 2024 and remain below its 2022 peak,” UNCTAD said.
Overall, global trade is expected to expand by about $1 trillion in 2024, with both goods and services contributing approximately $500 billion each.
Prices for traded goods increased slightly in Q3 2024 but are expected to remain stable in Q4 2024. Overall, prices for traded goods are projected to remain unchanged on an annual basis.
Trade inflation turns positive, but remains close to zero percent in the second half of 2024
Throughout 2024, global trade trends continued to follow the gradual increase that began in the second half of 2023, the UNCTAD report says.
During the last four quarters, trade growth in developing countries generally outpaced that of developed countries. However, this trend inverted in Q3 2024, with trade growth largely driven by positive trade dynamics in developed economies. In contrast, trade growth in East Asia stalled, and some of the largest Asian developing economies saw negative growth.
