JAKARTA- Indonesia’s February trade surplus is expected to have widened slightly from the previous month as exports likely contracted at a slower pace, while imports rose ahead of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.
A median forecast from 20 economists surveyed between March 7-14 projected a $2.32 billion of trade surplus last month, compared to a $2.01 billion surplus recorded in January.
Southeast Asia’s largest economy has been recording monthly trade surpluses since more than three years, before reaching its record high in April 2022, thanks to a commodity boom.
But the surpluses have gradually narrowing down since last year due to weaker exports, as prices of its top commodities such as coal and palm oil have declined amid lower global demand.
Economists in the poll predicted exports in February were seen contracting 6.5 percent year-on-year, compared to an 8.06 percent drop in the previous month.
Meanwhile, imports were expected to had jumped 9.3 percent on a yearly basis, versus 0.36 percent in January.
Imports of goods usually pick up ahead of Ramadan, which started in March this year for the world’s largest Muslim-majority country.
Indonesia’s trade surplus in 2023 shrank by almost a third as exports and imports dropped along with commodity prices and weakening global trade, data from the country’s statistics bureau showed.
The nation registered a trade surplus of $36.93 billion for the year, down from a record $54.46 in 2022, fueled by a global commodity boom.
Prices of Indonesia’s main commodities, including coal, palm oil and nickel, fell sharply last year. Some economists predict a further drop this year though at a slower rate.
Exports pulled back to $258.82 billion in 2023 from $291.9 billion in 2022, which was also a record high.
Imports reached $221.89 billion last year, down from $237.45 billion a year before.
The trade surplus in December, however, beat expectations at $3.3 billion, with exports higher than expected and imports declining. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a $1.92 billion surplus for the month.
