JAKARTA- Indonesia’s trade surplus in August likely widened slightly from a month earlier amid falling imports, even as exports were expected to remain weak, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.
The median forecast of 19 economists surveyed was for Southeast Asia’s biggest economy to book a surplus of $1.55 billion, versus $1.31 billion in July.
Indonesia’s exports and trade surplus have been shrinking as prices of its top commodities, like coal and palm oil, fall and global demand weakens.
That was the main reason the country’s current account swung into deficit for the first time in two years in the second quarter. Weak exports have also hit economic growth in the last quarter.
In August, economists predicted outbound shipments had fallen 22.40 percent on an annual basis, which followed July’s 18.03 percent drop.
Meanwhile, imports were seen down 9.33 percent from a year earlier, deeper than July’s contraction of 8.32 percent .
A monthly rebound in coal prices and higher manufacturing activities in Indonesia’s major trade partners helped to cushion the drop in exports, said Bank Permata chief economist Josua Pardede, who predicted a $1.5 billion surplus.
Indonesia’s trade surplus shrank more than expected in July to $1.31 billion, as imports contracted less than predicted, data from the statistics bureau showed.
A Reuters poll of economists had expected a July surplus of $2.53 billion. Trade surplus in the previous month was $3.46 billion.
Southeast Asia’s largest economy booked its biggest ever trade surplus last year as exports jumped, driven by a global commodity boom.
The surplus has narrowed this year as exports declined amid falling commodity prices.
Still, July was the 39th straight month that Indonesia has booked a trade surplus. The long run of monthly trade surplus has helped to stabilise the rupiah currency .
“A still healthy run-rate for the trade surplus to date, bodes well for external balances, by extension being supportive of the rupiah, at a time when global uncertainties are weighing on the currency,” Radhika Rao, an economist with DBS Bank said.
In July, shipments from Indonesia plunged 18.03 percent on a yearly basis to $20.88 billion, roughly in line with the poll’s prediction of an 18.30 percent drop, as prices of its top commodities like coal and palm oil fell.
Imports dropped 8.32 percent on a yearly basis to $19.57 billion, compared with the 15.50 percent fall predicted by economists in the poll.
