BY STEFANNO SULAIMAN AND GAYATRI SUROYO
JAKARTA- Indonesia’s trade surplus was bigger than expected in February as a surge in palm oil shipments bolstered exports, data showed on Monday, extending a strong start to the year even as the global trade outlook grows more uncertain.
The February surplus of $3.12 billion was larger than the $2.45 billion forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll, and followed an upwardly revised $3.49 billion surplus in January, the statistics department said.
The trade data will be among a host of economic indicators the central bank considers in its monthly review of monetary policy later this week.
Shipments from the resource-rich country have rebounded from falls that followed the end of the 2022 commodity boom, but analysts have warned the global trade outlook is cloudy given US President Donald Trump’s trade policy.
Exports rose 14.05 percent in February from a year earlier to $21.98 billion, quicker than the 9.10 percent rise expected by analysts in the poll.
The value of crude and refined palm oil exports jumped nearly 90 percent in February from a year earlier to $2.27 billion.
Prices of the edible oil have risen in recent months on expectations of tight supply. In volume terms, shipments rose by an annual 45 percent to 2.06 million metric tons.
Exports of precious metals, jewelry and nickel metals also rose, helping offset a drop of nearly 20 percent in coal exports, which the statistics bureau said was due to both lower prices and volumes.
Imports by Southeast Asia’s largest economy were $18.86 billion in February, up 2.30 percent on a yearly basis, compared with a 0.6 percent increase expected in the poll.
Car and spare parts imports jumped 24 percent on an annual basis to $920 million.
Indonesia’s economy grew 5.03 percent in 2024, roughly similar to the previous year’s rate and in line with expectations, but the pace was the slowest in three years, official data showed, raising hopes of further stimulus measures.
Growth in Southeast Asia’s largest economy has hovered around 5 percent since the COVID-19 pandemic, a solid pace but far behind new President Prabowo Subianto’s target of 8 percent within his term until 2029 . In 2023, growth was 5.05 percent.
Analysts pointed to several positive growth catalysts, including the central bank’s rate cuts of 50 basis points since September and government incentives such as property tax cuts and a higher minimum wage.
Last year, economic growth was propped up by spending for political campaigns and elections as well as rising investment, which offset shrinking net exports, Statistics Indonesia data showed. Investment growth in 2024, at 4.61 percent year-on-year, was the highest in six years.
But the re-escalation of global trade disputes presents a challenge in coming years, heightening business uncertainty.
Bank Indonesia (BI) last month cited the prospect of US tariffs disrupting trade and weakening global demand when it downgraded its 2025 growth forecast to a range of 4.7 percent-5.5 percent from 4.8 percent-5.6 percent.
