JAKARTA – Indonesia reported on Monday a $4.33 billion trade surplus in March, more than expected and the widest in four months as shipments beat estimates and imports were weaker than anticipated.
A Reuters poll of analysts had expected a surplus of $2.64 billion in March. The March surplus was the largest since November 2024, according to LSEG data.
Exports from the resource-rich country have rebounded from lows reached after the end of a commodity boom in 2022, but shipments could soon be affected by dimming global trade outlook due to the U.S. tariff policies.
The United States has announced a 32 percent tariff on Indonesian products, which has been paused for 90 days. Several Indonesian ministers have been in Washington since last week to try to negotiate a deal to avoid the tariff.
Exports rose 3.16 percent on an annual basis in March to $23.25 billion, official data showed on Monday, compared with a 3.40 percent fall expected by economists polled by Reuters.
Imports were worth $18.92 billion, the statistics bureau said, up 5.34 percent on a yearly basis, compared with the poll’s prediction of a 6.6 percent rise.
Meanwhile, Indonesia’s crude and refined palm oil exports dipped nearly 2 percent in March from February as local consumption rose due to Ramadan, but shipments remained the highest in four years for the month of March.
The higher exports than last year from Indonesia, the world’s biggest producer of the tropical oil, will help in bringing down stocks and support prices that started trading at a discount to rival soyoil after holding premium for the last few months.
Indonesia exported 2.02 million metric tons of crude and refined palm oil in March, down slightly from the previous month’s 2.06 million tons, data from the statistics bureau showed on Monday. But exports were still up 13 percent from March 2024.
March shipments were worth $2.19 billion, compared with February’s $2.27 billion, the data showed.
The bureau’s data excludes palm kernel oil, oleochemicals and biodiesel. Indonesia’s palm oil association GAPKI usually releases its own data at a later date, which cover more products and so has different export figures.
In Indonesia, the world’s largest Muslim-majority nation, palm oil consumption usually rises during holy month of Ramadan.
There wasn’t a significant drop in Indonesian exports in March because its palm oil prices remained attractive to buyers compared to Malaysian offerings, said Anilkumar Bagani, research head of Mumbai-based vegetable oil broker Sunvin Group.
“April exports are expected to be higher than March due to a strong buying by India and other Asian buyers,” he said.
Palm oil mainly competes with soyoil and sunflower oil supplies from Argentina, Brazil, Russia, and Ukraine.
“Palm oil has now started trading at a discount to soyoil. This should boost exports in the coming months, when production is also expected to rise,” a New-Delhi-based dealer with a global trade house said.
Despite lower exports, palm oil inventories in Indonesia may have declined due to lower output during the Ramadan holidays and increased consumption with the country’s implementation of a 40 percent mandatory biodiesel blend, the dealer said.
