JAKARTA- Indonesia has allocated an additional quota of 1.6 million metric tons of rice for import for this year on top of 2 million tons previously approved, an official said on Monday, anticipating lower domestic output in the January-March harvest.
The trade ministry is working to issue the import permits for the additional allocation, ministry official Arif Sulistiyo said during a weekly government meeting streamed live.
Indonesia imported 3.06 million tons of the grain in 2023, close to a record.
Southeast Asia’s biggest economy is expected to produce 32 million tons of rice this year, up from 30.9 million tons in 2023, but production in the early months is expected to be disrupted by the impact of last year’s drought.
January-March rice output is expected to be 2.82 million tons lower compared to the same month last year, Arif said.
Meanwhile, at retail level, rice has sold with prices above the government-set cap due to concerns of supply.
Indonesian farmer Wardiyono typically starts planting his small rice field in November but this season he began only in January, when rains finally arrived after months of drought caused by an especially strong El Nino weather phenomenon.
“Normally it rains daily in January. This year, it is different,” Wardiyono, 58, said by phone from Java’s Klaten regency south of the city of Surakarta. Wardiyono, who has one name like many Indonesians, said some days it was completely dry and for several days is has been just short spells of rain.
The planting delays and lack of rain Wardiyono is experiencing point to the likelihood of a worse-than-expected rice harvest and higher imports in 2024 in the world’s fourth-largest consumer of the staple. The Indonesian government is expecting the usual March-April peak harvest to be delayed by a month because of the below normal precipitation in Java, the country’s key rice growing region.
Lower Indonesian rice output may tighten supplies at a time prices are already near their highest since 2008 amid lower output in top exporters Thailand, Vietnam and India.
The London-based International Grains Council forecasts another decline in Indonesian rice output this year after El Nino curtailed the 2023 harvest, IGC analyst Peter Clubb said.
“El Nino has had quite a sizeable impact on Indonesia, leading to much reduced rainfall.
This will likely see Indonesia’s imports remain above average in 2024,” he said.
Indonesia’s initial forecast for 32 million metric tons of rice output in 2024 has been undercut by predictions that rice output in January and February is expected to drop 46 percent from a year ago to 2.25 million tons.
Typically, planting for Indonesia’s main rice crop begins with the start of the wet season in October, with harvesting in February-April. The country produces two rice crops, with the harvest during the October-April wet season accounting for 55 percent of annual output.
Signs of the expected 2024 decline are apparent with the farm ministry reporting the area planted with rice in the fourth quarter of 2023 dropped to 2.91 million hectares (7.2 million acres), below the target of 3.53 million hectares (8.7 million acres). – Reuters
