By Gavin Maguire
LITTLETON, Colorado- Global wind-powered electricity generation could set a new record in 2024, as winter sets in throughout the northern hemisphere and wind speeds pick up across a majority of the world’s wind farms.
This, in turn, could help wind power grab a record-high share of the worldwide electricity generation market.
Global wind electricity generation in the first nine months of 2024 has only climbed around 7 percent versus the same period in 2023, according to energy think tank Ember. But historical trends suggest this figure could spike in the final months of the year, pushing annual generation to a new record.
A late-year pick-up in wind output is likely because the annual peak in wind generation tends to occur during the northern hemisphere winter, as over 90 percent of operating wind farms are located in Asia, Europe and North America.
If wind production rises in line with these expectations, it would likely account for more than 10 percent of monthly global electricity output in November and December. This would be the first time it has ever eclipsed this level.
Wind power’s generation potential in the final months of 2024 will depend largely on wind speeds in China, the United States and Germany, which collectively are home to 64 percent of current global wind generation capacity, according to Global Energy Monitor (GEM).
China alone has a 43 percent share of global capacity (around 400,000 megawatts (MW)), making it by far the most important wind generation market.
Over the first nine months of 2024, China’s wind-powered electricity generation was 712 terawatt hours (TWh), according to Ember.
That total was 11 percent higher than the same period in 2023, meaning China’s full-year output is on track to rise by over 10 percent once generation during the final months of the year is complete.
The United States is the second-largest wind market, with around 145,000 MW of capacity.
From January through September, wind-powered electricity output was 333 TWh, up 6.2 percent from the same months last year.
Germany, Europe’s largest wind producer, has around 47,000 MW of current wind capacity, which has generated around 94 TWh of electricity so far in 2024. That’s an increase of 7 percent versus the first nine months of 2023.
There are several reasons to believe wind power will gain further ground in the electricity generation market in the coming years.
Global wind generation capacity has been one of the fastest-growing forms of electricity production so far this century. It expanded around 20 percent per year from 2001 through 2021, according to Ember.
True, global capacity growth has dropped to around half that rate since 2022 due to a mix of factors, including shortages of key components and steep inflation for parts and labor.
The slowdown has been particularly acute in North America and Europe, where utility-scale wind capacity expanded by only 5 percent and 7 percent, respectively, last year, according to Ember.
This negative trend has persisted through the first half of 2024. From January through August of this year, wind capacity in the United States expanded by just 2.4 percent year-on-year, according to data portal Cleanview.
And wind capacity expansions in Germany were also down slightly during the first half of 2024 compared to the first six months of 2023, according to WindEurope. – Reuters