SINGAPORE- Singapore’s economic decline is expected to have slowed significantly in the third quarter as the city-state loosened coronavirus curbs, giving the central bank room to keep monetary settings unchanged when it meets next week.
Gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to contract 6.8 percent from the same period a year earlier, according to the median forecast of 11 economists in a Reuters poll, marking the third straight quarter of decline. The economy had shrunk 13.2 percent in April-June – its worst performance on record as the country went into lockdown.
GDP may jump 35.3 percent on a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted and annualized basis in July-September, the poll showed, picking up from a 42.9 percent plunge in the second quarter.
Singapore’s August non-oil domestic exports (NODX) rose 7.7 percent from a year earlier, beating forecasts, official data showed, helped by items such as non-monetary gold and specialized machinery.
(Reuters Photo)
That compared with a revised 5.9 percent increase in July. Economists had forecast a 3.7 percent increase for August, according to the median of eight estimates.
On a seasonally adjusted monthon-month basis, exports expanded 10.5 percent in August after a 1.2 percent rise in the previous month, Enterprise Singapore said in a statement. Economists had forecast a 0.9 percent rise.
Shipments of non-monetary gold rose 55.1 percent in August from a year earlier. The city-state is a big regional player in the gold trade, and exports can be affected by sharp swings in value. Electronics exports increased 5.7 percent.
“We expect a rebound from the second-quarter lows as economic activities partially resumed from June, although some restrictions remain,” said Jeff Ng, senior treasury strategist at HL Bank.
All 14 economists polled by Reuters forecast the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will keep its exchange-rate based policy on hold at its review on Oct. 14.
However, while economists say the worst is over for the economy, they expect the recovery to be sluggish, and see fiscal policy as the main driver of any rebound.
