GENEVA- European Union wheat exports are increasingly focused on the western side of Africa after losing out to Russia in major North African and Middle Eastern markets, traders said on Wednesday.
EU shipments of common wheat, or soft wheat, so far in 2024/25 are 30 percent below the year-earlier level, curbed by Russian-led competition and a rain-hit harvest in top EU grower France. Nigeria is currently the top destination, while previous leading outlet Algeria is only in fifth place, EU data shows.
“We’re moving more west,” Karolis Simas, president of the Lithuanian grain processors and traders association, said of shipments from the Baltic states.
Baltic states’ wheat exports are now 75 percent -focused on Africa, with Nigeria and also South Africa replacing past top destinations Iran and Saudi Arabia that have become captive markets for Russia, he told the Global Grain conference in Geneva.
Poland has observed a similar trend, according to Norbert Sztloc, commercial head of grain and oilseeds at Polish Agro.
The country used to send around half of its exports to Saudi Arabia in giant panamax vessels, but its main outlet is now West Africa using smaller-sized vessels, he told the conference.
In France, farm office FranceAgriMer on Wednesday cut its forecast for French soft wheat exports in 2024/25, now seen down 62 percent on last year, as sales to Algeria have dried up.
France and also Germany have partly adapted to Russia’s growing wheat trade in Algeria by selling more to Morocco.
But Russia has also expanded its share of the Moroccan market this season as part of a record pace of exports, causing Morocco to rank as only the fourth EU destination so far.
Traders see scope for EU sales to accelerate due to moves by Russia to cool exports and as supplies ebb in Ukraine, another major Black Sea supplier.
Polish exports may pick up from March as farmers release stocks, with another 2 million tons of shipments needed after a slow start to the export season, Sztloc said.
Meanwhile, Australia is likely to produce around 1 million metric tons more wheat this season than was estimated before the harvest began, with early results showing high yields, analysts said.
Australia is the world’s fourth-biggest wheat exporter and a large crop would add to global supply at a time when benchmark Chicago prices are near four-year lows.
The harvest is now around 15 percent to 20 percent complete, analysts said, with northernmost cropping zones cut and combines now moving southwards.
Eastern regions had plentiful rain throughout the growing season, but the west was drier and the south parched. Widespread frost also hit crops in September, leading many analysts to downgrade their production forecasts.
