El Niño weakens but will keep temperatures high, UN weather agency says

- Advertisement -

GENEVA- The El Nino weather pattern has begun to weaken but will continue to fuel above average temperatures across the globe, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Tuesday.

El Nino is a naturally occurring weather phenomenon associated with a disruption of wind patterns that means warmer ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific.

El Nino, which occurs on average every two to seven years, typically lasts nine to 12 months and can provoke extreme weather phenomena such as wildfires, tropical cyclones and prolonged droughts.

- Advertisement -

WMO spokesperson Claire Nullis said El Nino had peaked in December and would go down as one of the five strongest in history.

“It’s now gradually weakening, but obviously it will continue to impact the global climate in the coming months,” she told reporters in Geneva.

“We do expect above normal temperatures in the coming months, between March and May, and overall in most land areas.”

In separate comments, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said El Nino had partly contributed to recent temperature records.

“Every month since June 2023 has set a new monthly temperature record — and 2023 was by far the warmest year on record,” Saulo said in a statement.

“El Nino has contributed to these record temperatures, but heat-trapping greenhouse gases are unequivocally the main culprit.”

The WMO said there was about a 60 percent chance of El Nino persisting from March to May and a 80 percent chance of neutral conditions, neither El Nino nor La Nina, in April to June.

There is a chance of La Nina – a weather pattern characterized by unusually cold temperatures in the Pacific Ocean – developing later in the year, but the odds remain uncertain, the WMO said.

The La Nina weather pattern characterized by unusually cold temperatures in the Pacific Ocean could emerge in the second half of 2024, following a strong El Nino year, a U.S. government weather forecaster said.

The pattern typically brings higher precipitation to Australia, Southeast Asia and India and drier weather to grain and oilseed producing regions of the Americas.

“Even though forecasts made through the spring season tend to be less reliable, there is a historical tendency for La Nina to follow strong El Nino events,” the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said.

The current El Nino weather pattern, which caused hot and dry weather in Asia and heavier than usual rains in parts of the Americas, is likely to give way to the neutral conditions during April-June 2024, the CPC said.

CPC said in its monthly forecast there is a 55% chance that La Niña conditions develop between June and August. – Reuters

Author

- Advertisement -

Share post: