NEW YORK- Global oil inventories are expected to fall by 200,000 bpd in the second half of 2023 due to voluntary output cuts from Saudi Arabia and reduced production among OPEC+ countries, the US Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.
The lower inventories, which are forecast to keep global oil supply below consumption, are likely to boost oil prices, the EIA said in a monthly report. It now sees spot Brent crude at $94.91 a barrel in 2024, up from a previous forecast of $88.22.
Oil prices have been volatile in recent months, with voluntary outputs cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia lending support while macroeconomic concerns have thrown into question demand expectations and put a lid on futures.
Brent crude futures are currently just above $86 per barrel.
Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, are expected to cut their crude production by 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 compared with this year, the EIA said.
Crude output in the US is set to rise by 1.01 million bpd to 12.92 million bpd in 2023, and by 200,000 bpd to 13.12 million bpd in 2024, the EIA said.
Total US petroleum consumption is expected to increase by 100,000 bpd to 20.1 million bpd in 2023, and by 100,000 bpd to 20.2 million bpd in 2024.
US jet fuel consumption is forecast to climb 6 percent in 2024 from this year on strong consumer demand for air travel, which has returned to pre-pandemic levels, the EIA said.
EIA added that the global energy consumption will likely increase through 2050 and outpace advances in energy efficiency.
Global population growth, increased regional manufacturing and higher living standards will contribute to the increase in consumption, the EIA said. Global carbon dioxide emissions from energy will increase by 2050 in most scenarios outlined by the EIA.
Non-fossil fuel-based resources, including nuclear and renewable energy, will produce more energy through 2050, but that growth will likely not be sufficient to reduce global energy-related CO2 emissions under current laws and regulations, the EIA said.
Global electric-power generating capacity by 2050 is expected to increase by a range of 50 percent to 100 percent , and electricity generation by 30 percent to 76 percent , the EIA said.
Zero-carbon technologies account for most of the growth in both global capacity and generation.
Electricity generation from renewables and nuclear could provide as much as two-thirds of global electricity generation by 2050, according to the EIA.
Solar and wind show the highest levels of electricity generation growth. Meanwhile, coal and natural gas is expected to make up between 27 percent and 38 percent of power generation capacity by 2050, down from about half in 2022, EIA Administrator Joseph DeCarolis said on Wednesday during an event to present the outlook.
Sales of electric vehicles are expected to reach two billion by 2050, with the peak of the internal combustion engine expected between 2027 and 2033, DeCarolis said.
