SEOUL- South Korea’s exports likely fell in September for a 12th consecutive month, a Reuters survey showed on Wednesday, with the outlook clouded by few signs of an improvement in the key China market.
South Korea – a bellwether for global trade – is the first major exporting economy to report monthly trade figures, providing clues on the health of worldwide demand.
Outbound shipments from Asia’s fourth-biggest economy are expected to have fallen 9.1 percent in September from the same month the year before, showed the median estimate of 13 economists in the survey conducted Sept. 21-26.
That would be deeper than the drop of 8.3 percent in August and extend the run of year-on-year losses to a 12th consecutive month, the longest period since January 2020.
Economists said exports have likely bottomed out and are on a recovery trend, but the pace is being delayed due to weak demand in China.
“The possibility is growing that exports will remain negative in the fourth quarter of this year on a slower recovery of the global manufacturing cycle and Chinese economic risk,” said Park Sang-hyun, an economist at HI Investment Securities.
In the first 20 days this month, South Korea exported goods worth 9.8 percent more than the year before, but it was largely due to the timing difference in Chuseok thanksgiving holidays. Exports to China were still down 9.0 percent , while those to the United States and the European Union jumped 30.5 percent and 32.7 percent , respectively.
South Korean policymakers have said exports would likely swing to growth from October on more favorable comparison bases, but economists don’t expect the underlying softness to improve in a hurry. – Reuters
