By John Kemp
LONDON- China plans to generate an increasing share of electricity from renewables as part of its pathway to net zero emissions, with coal-fired and gas-fired power plants acting in a reserve capacity to ensure reliability.
The transformation is already well underway, though the extent of the changes was masked by drought in 2022/23 that temporarily reduced hydroelectric generation.
Thermal power plants, mostly fueled by coal, accounted for 2,853 gigawatts (GW) of generation capacity or 48 percent of the total at the end of November 2023, according to the China Electricity Council.
Remaining capacity came from zero-emission sources, including solar, hydro, wind and nuclear.
But thermal power plants still accounted for a far higher share of actual generation compared with lower shares from hydro, wind, nuclear and solar.
The average thermal plant generated for 4040 hours in the first eleven months of the year compared with 2927 hours for hydro plants, 2029 hours for wind farms and 1218 hours for solar.
Thermal plants were able to generate on-demand thanks to plentiful coal supplies while hydro was hit by low water volumes on the southern river systems and wind and solar were limited by the normal intermittency.
In 2023, coal generators played a crucial role meeting the resumed growth in electricity consumption as the economy re-opened after the COVID-19 pandemic while also making up for shortfalls from hydro.
Total electricity consumption increased by 579 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2023 according to the National Energy Administration.
Generation from large-scale power plants rose by 520 billion kWh with most of the increase coming from thermal stations.
There were smaller contributions from wind farms, solar and nuclear generators.
Hydro generation declined as a result of low rainfall and river levels in the southern provinces of Sichuan and Yunnan that account for around half of the country’s total hydroelectric output.
Despite record thermal generation last year, massive growth in renewables capacity and a return to more normal river levels is likely to cause thermal growth to slow and then reverse before the end of the decade.
Thermal capacity increased by 4 percent in 2023, but that was slower than the overall growth in consumption, and much slower than the rate of capacity increases in wind and solar.
