By Mei Mei Chu
BEIJING- China, the world’s biggest agriculture importer, has set targets to drastically reduce its reliance on overseas buying over the coming decade in line with its push for food security, but they will be exceedingly difficult to meet, experts say.
With limited land and water, China will have to sharply increase farming productivity through technology, including genetically modified crops, and expand area under cultivation to meet Beijing’s 10-year projections.
The government envisions 92 percent self-sufficiency in staple grains and beans by 2033, up from 84 percent during 2021-2023, according to a document released in late April, on a path towards President Xi Jinping’s goal to become an “agriculture power” by the middle of the century.
Cutting the country’s imports would be a blow to producers from the US to Brazil and Indonesia, who have expanded capacity to meet demand from China’s 1.4 billion people, the world’s largest market for soybeans, meat and grains.
Over the 10 years to 2033 the agriculture ministry projects a 75 percent plunge in corn imports to 6.8 million tons and a 60 percent drop for wheat to 4.85 million tons.
For soybeans, the biggest item on a farm import bill that totaled $234 billion last year, Beijing sees imports falling 21 percent to 78.7 million tons in a decade.
Those targets defy the trends of the past decade in which grains and oilseed imports have surged 87 percent .
“Forecasting a sharp reversal where in 10 years the country will be importing less than it does today seems questionable,” said Darin Friedrichs, co-founder of Shanghai-based Sitonia Consulting.
China will struggle to meet its targets mainly due to a lack of land and water, five analysts and industry executives say.
In stark contrast to Beijing’s projections, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) sees China’s corn imports in 2033/34 roughly in line with current levels and wheat imports declining 20 percent . In the biggest divergence, USDA expects soybean imports to rise 39 percent .
The USDA also expects growth in demand for animal feed, a key user of soybeans and corn, to outpace domestic corn output expansion and spur imports of sorghum and barley.
Food security has long been a priority for China, which has a painful history of famine and must feed nearly 20 percent of the global population with less than 9 percent of its arable land and 6 percent of its water resources.
The urgency to cut dependence on imports grew after the country faced supply chain disruptions during the COVID pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
A trade war with the US its No.2 agriculture supplier after Brazil, and climate shocks such as heavy rains last year that damaged China’s wheat harvest, have added to the challenge.
On June 1, China will implement a food security law that calls for absolute self-sufficiency in staple grains and requires local governments to include food security in their economic and development plans.
That will add to other efforts to bolster food production, including stepped up grains insurance cover for farmers to protect their income, announced this week.
Last month, Beijing launched a drive to raise grain output by at least 50 million tons by 2030, spotlighting upgraded farmland and investments in seed technology for higher crop yields and quality.
