BEIJING- Declines in China’s exports likely slowed in November, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday, amid mixed signs factories in the world’s second-largest economy may be finding their footing after a bruising slump in demand.
Outbound shipments from China are expected to show a 1.1 percent drop in November from a year earlier, following a 6.4 percent fall in October and continuing the trend of narrowing declines for the fourth straight month, according to the median forecast of 28 economists polled.
Mixed manufacturing data for November has kept alive calls for further policy support to shore up growth but also raised questions about whether predominantly negative sentiment-based surveys reflected improvements in conditions.
A run of mostly upbeat data from October suggest support measures trickling out of Beijing since June bolstered a tentative economic recovery, even if a protracted property crisis and soft global demand continue to dog policymakers.
Consequently, the International Monetary Fund in November upgraded its China growth forecasts for 2023 and 2024 by 0.4 percent percentage points each.
But Moody’s on Tuesday slapped a downgrade warning on China’s credit rating. The contrasting takes on the health of the economy were apparent in the poll.
Morgan Stanley projected that China’s exports grew by as much as 2.0 percent in November, while Citigroup forecast a 1.0 percent increase. Barclays, Oxford Economics and ANZ, however, anticipate exports dropped by 5.0 percent , 4.7 percent , and 4.6 percent , respectively, last month.
