BEIJING- China’s export growth likely slowed in June due to softening global demand, while COVID curbs weighed on domestic demand and imports, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.
The world’s second-largest economy is slowly recovering from tough anti-virus lockdowns and supply chain disruptions that started in April, but headwinds to growth such as the Ukraine war, an uncertain global economic outlook and new flare-ups in domestic COVID outbreaks persist.
Exports in June likely grew 12.0 percent from a year earlier, slowing from a 16.9 percent expansion in May, according to a median forecast in a Reuters poll of 21 economists.
Analysts attributed the slower growth in June to weaker global demand and a high base for comparison from a year ago. A CIVD-induced pent-up surge in cargoes and deliveries also eased as supply chains began to stabilize.
However, the double-digit rise still indicates global demand for Chinese-made goods remains robust, despite worries of a looming recession.
Foreign trade container throughput at eight major Chinese ports rose 8.4 percent year-on-year in June with northern Tianjin port and southern Guangzhou port leading the growth, according to data released by the domestic port association.
Official and private surveys also showed China’s factory sector snapped three months of activity decline in June, with a gauge on export orders improving.
China’s commerce ministry said on Thursday it expects June trade growth to remain relatively high, though it said businesses are worried about increasing uncertainties in the second half of the year.
“Any unexpected COVID outbreak, especially in major cities, could trigger further mobility restrictions. Externally, a slowdown in the US economy and the Fed’s hiking moves may cloud the outlook for China’s exports,” ANZ analysts said in a note.
Imports were expected to have risen 3.9 percent last month, the poll showed, compared with a 4.1 percent gain in May. The slowdown in growth was likely driven by subdued consumer spending as lingering virus curbs in some cities restricted mobility and shoppers tightened their belts.
China’s trade surplus is likely to have narrowed to $75.70 billion from $78.76 billion in May.
While China’s economy is showing signs of regaining traction after COVID-related lockdowns, Premier Li Keqiang said the foundation of the recovery is not solid.
More efforts will be made to boost enthusiasm of officials at both central and local levels and keep the economy operating within a reasonable range, Li was quoted by state media as saying on Thursday during a meeting with senior officials from coastal and affluent regions of Shanghai, Guangdong, Fujian, Jiangsu and Zhejiang.
