BEIJING- China’s exports likely tumbled in May after a surprising rebound the previous month as global coronavirus lockdowns continued to devastate demand, but imports showed some signs of improvement as Chinese manufacturers got back on their feet, a Reuters poll showed.
May exports in the world’s second-largest economy are expected to have contracted 7 percent from a year earlier, according to a median estimate from the survey of 23 economists, compared with an unexpected 3.5 percent gain in April.
Imports likely fell 9.7 percent on year, the poll showed, easing from a 14.2 percent drop the previous month, due to recovering global oil prices, a low base last year and as manufacturers cranked up operations.
Both official and private factory surveys for May showed sub-indexes for export orders remained in contraction, suggesting strong external headwinds on Chinese exporters in the near term.
Highlighting the uncertain outlook, the government said in late May it was not setting an annual growth target, for the first time since 2002. The economy shrank 6.8 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier.
“Despite stronger-than-expected export growth in April, we still believe China’s export growth may slump sharply in coming months, as the lagged impact from the slump in new export orders in March, April, and even May, could fully kick in,” Nomura said in a report. It estimated exports fell 8 percent in May.