LONDON- The scarcity premium embedded in the structure of Brent crude oil futures has widened to the most since 2013 this week, a sign of the tight market underpinning oil’s rally that pundits increasingly predict will push the market to $100 a barrel.
The premium of the immediate Brent crude contract to the December 2022 price stood at $9.50 a barrel on Tuesday after reaching $9.87 on Monday. The value on Monday was the highest since 2013, Refinitiv Eikon data showed.
Brent’s outright price has surged more than 60 percent this year, driven by a wider energy crunch as economies recover from the pandemic and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, raises output only slowly.
As well as OPEC+ supply restraint, surging natural gas prices, which have encouraged a switch to oil for power generation, have also spurred the rally.
More voices say prices could go higher. Larry Fink, chief executive of the world’s largest asset manager BlackRock, said on Tuesday there is a high probability of oil reaching $100.
Rystad Energy gave a similar view on Monday.
“A brief spike to $100 is not out of the question as oil becomes a viable substitute for heating and power, particularly in Asia,” Rystad analyst Louise Dickson said.
Also on Monday, Goldman Sachs said a strong demand rebound could push Brent above its year-end forecast of $90 and gas-to-oil switching could add at least 1 million barrels per day (bpd) to demand, more than some estimates.
The price structure of Brent, whereby prices for immediate delivery are higher than those for future supply, is known as backwardation. A steepening backwardation is generally taken to indicate tightening prompt supply.
Japanese bank MUFG, in a report earlier this month, used the term “scarcity premium” for backwardation.
Oil prices fell on Wednesday after industry data showed crude oil stockpiles rose more than expected and fuel inventories unexpectedly increased last week in the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer.
Brent oil futures fell 25 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $86.15 a barrel after closing at the highest in seven years on Tuesday.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures declined 26 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $84.39 a barrel after gaining 1.1 percent in the previous session.
Crude oil inventories rose 2.3 million barrels in the week ending Oct. 22, market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures said late on Tuesday. That was more than the expectations for a 1.9 million barrel gain.
Gasoline inventories rose by 500,000 barrels and distillate stocks increased by 1 million barrels, compared with a forecast for both to drop. – Reuters
