BY SABRINA VALLE, MILANA VINN AND KANE WU
NEW YORK — Mergers and acquisitions during the first half of this year were not what investment bankers had hoped for, but a burst of big deals in Asia and renewed optimism in US markets could be paving the way for megadeals.
Market uncertainties stemming from US President Donald Trump’s trade war, high interest rates and broader geopolitical tensions hampered — but did not completely derail — what bankers expected to be a blockbuster year for global M&A, dealmakers say.
Trump’s tariff policies, kicked off by his self-styled “Liberation Day” on April 2, cast a chill over the markets and pushed several deals and initial public offerings into subsequent quarters.
“The expectation was we would see a lot of deal activity in the first half of 2025, and the reality is we didn’t see it,” said Tommy Rueger, global co-head of equity capital markets at UBS, which Dealogic ranked No. 9 in equity capital markets revenue, according to preliminary data from January 1 through June 27.
Interviews with more than a dozen top bankers signal growing confidence that the worst of the market turbulence is over. Fresh record closing highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes have helped renew optimism that M&A in the second half of the year will be even stronger, dealmakers say.
“There were a lot of deals that were put on hold that will come back,” said Ivan Farman, co-head of global M&A at Bank of America, which was ranked No. 3 in overall investment banking revenue and No. 5 for M&A in Dealogic’s year-to-date rankings. “I’m optimistic about the second half.”
There is reason for optimism, dealmakers say, with the recovery in the markets and Trump’s easier antitrust policies paving the way for bigger deals. “The probability of very large transactions, perhaps $50 billion-plus, has increased versus a year ago,” said John Collins, global co-head of Mergers & Acquisitions at Morgan Stanley, which was ranked No. 4 in overall fee revenue among investment banks and No. 3 for M&A deals.
Some $2.14 trillion in deals were signed from January 1 through June 27, up 26 percent from the same period last year. Part of that increase, however, came from Asia, where activity more than doubled to $583.9 billion.
Deal activity in North America rose to $1.04 trillion from January 1 through June 27, up 17 percent from the first half last year, according to preliminary data from Dealogic.
Market volatility, as measured by the VIX index, has dropped to levels that indicate investors feel safer to invest today.
