TOKYO- The dollar traded near the lowest in more than a year against the euro and sterling on Thursday as a dovish Federal Reserve and fresh signs of weakness in the US job market backed the case for interest rate cuts.
The dollar sagged below the closely watched 145 yen mark after US Treasury yields slid overnight, ahead of weekly jobless claims data later in the day and a hotly anticipated speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the central bank’s annual Jackson Hole symposium on Friday.
The dollar index which measures the currency against the euro, sterling, yen and three other major peers, was little changed at 101.19 as of 0452 GMT. It dipped to 100.92 on Wednesday for the first time this year.
The euro was off slightly at $1.1143 after gaining to $1.11735 on Wednesday for the first time since July 2023. Sterling eased to $1.3084 after climbing to $1.31195 in the previous session, also a level last seen in July 2023.
Fed officials last month were strongly leaning toward an interest rate cut at their September policy meeting and several of them would have even been willing to reduce borrowing costs immediately, according to the minutes of their July 30-31 gathering released on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, employers added far fewer jobs than originally reported in the year through March, according to a Labor Department report released the same day.
Traders now price in a 38 percent probability of a 50 basis point (bp) cut at the Fed’s Sept. 17-18 meeting, up from 33 percent a day earlier, and a 62 percent chance of a 25 bp reduction, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Powell gives the keynote speech in Jackson Hole on Friday, and markets are hungry for any hints on the likely size of a cut next month, and whether borrowing costs are likely to be lowered at each subsequent policy meeting.
