The Department of Agriculture (DA) is keeping its target of a record rice harvest this year even after trimming its 2025 forecast, citing “prudence in the face of uncertainty” amid erratic weather.
Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. told lawmakers on Tuesday that 2025 palay output is now expected at 20.35 million metric tons (MT), down slightly from an earlier estimate of 20.45 million.
“The rainfall volume we’ve seen in recent months has been unprecedented. This is just a more conservative stance—prudence in the face of uncertainty,” Tiu Laurel said during the House appropriations committee hearing on the DA’s 2026 budget.
He acknowledged that heavy rains and low-pressure systems have dampened prospects, even as palay production rose 6.4 percent to 9.08 million MT in the first half of the year on the back of improved weather and stronger government support. Historically, more than half of annual output comes in the second semester.
The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported third-quarter palay production of 3.94 million MT, up 18.4 percent from the corresponding period in 2024.
La Niña threat
Administrator Nathaniel Servando of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) warned of a 70 percent chance that La Niña will form from October to December and persist into early 2026. Such a shift could bring heavier rains and flooding to key rice-producing regions.
On the sidelines of the Benteng Bigas program launch for the transport sector, Tiu Laurel said the agency is “watching the skies closely” as the erratic weather poses risks to production.
Supply outlook
Despite the trimmed forecast, the DA said year-end rice supply is expected to remain at a comfortable level of 3.86 to 3.96 million MT, equivalent to 96 to 101 days of national consumption. Officials stressed that the supply buffer, alongside intensified monitoring, would guide any decision on rice import volumes to safeguard food security amid volatile weather.
