The National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) warns of thin power supply this summer in the Luzon grid due to higher demand in the new normal.
NGCP said all three grids are expected to experience increased peak demands for this year.
NGCP cited the Department of Energy’s (DOE) forecast this year of a total peak demand of 12,387 megawatts (MW) for Luzon to occur in the last week of May, over 6 percent higher from the actual 2021 peak load of 11,640MW which occurred on May 28, 2021.
NGCP said thin operating margins are forecasted in the Luzon grid from April to June due to increase in demand during the summer, which includes the critical election period.
For Visayas, peak demand occurs in December mainly due to the holiday season. This is expected to reach 2,528 MW, up by over 12 percent from 2021’s 2,252 MW.
In Mindanao, peak demand occurs in August that is likely to hit 2,223 MW this year or an improvement of almost 4 percent from 2,144 MW last year.
NGCP said the DOE has approved this year’s Grid Operating and Maintenance Program (GOMP) which consolidates preventive maintenance schedules of power plants, considering the needed supply to meet the projected demand.
Under the GOMP and DOE’s directives, no maintenance shutdowns can be scheduled during the summer months.
“NGCP, in compliance with its mandate, coordinated with the generation and distribution sectors so that we could optimize and rationalize our own maintenance schedules, to ensure sufficiency, at least on paper, of power supply throughout the year,” the company said in a statement.
However, as early as January, some generating units extended their maintenance shutdowns while others de-rated to decrease their committed generation output which resulted in the raising of yellow alerts last January 10 and 11.
Yellow alerts are issued when the level of power reserves in the grid is low and below the capacity of the largest generating unit but power interruptions are not yet imminent.
“On paper, there appears to be sufficient supply to meet demand but the plan on paper, the GOMP, is not always followed. It is when there are unscheduled shutdowns and de-rations and extensions of maintenance duration that grid operations may be disrupted enough to warrant the issuance of a grid alert status,” NGCP explained.
“As the transmission service provider, NGCP can only give an overview of the current supply and demand situation and endeavor to dispatch any and all available grid resources. It cannot intervene on matters concerning power generation,” NGCP added.
Earlier this week, initial announcements from the DOE and NGCP only warned the possibility of a yellow alert this year in the Visayas grid due to the absence of high-voltage direct current transmission link from Luzon.
