ANALYSTS said on Thursday they estimate inflation in April stayed benign, affirming the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) earlier emphasis that risk to the outlook has eased.
Aris Dacanay, economist at HSBC Global Research, expects headline inflation last month at 1.9 percent — below the central bank’s original target range of 2 percent to 4 percent.
“Inflation likely remained benign during the month and will likely continue to do so in the next few months,” Dacanay said in a report.
“Retail rice prices in the capital continued to moderate as global rice prices eased. And with global rice prices falling faster than retail prices, there is still room for local rice prices to ease even further,” he added.
Dacanay said not only did global oil prices eased, but the peso also strengthened against the US dollar, making fuel and diesel more affordable.
“Although electricity prices may have increased from March, we don’t think the increase was substantial enough to offset the downside price pressures from transport and food costs,” he added.
The other day, the BSP released its own estimate of April inflation at between 1.3 percent and 2.1 percent.
The central bank’s latest forecast is lower than the government’s full-year inflation target of between 2 percent and 4 percent.
If the 1.3 percent inflation forecast is realized, it will be the slowest in nearly six years since November 2019, when the inflation rate came in at 1.2 percent.
The Bangko Sentral cited easing prices of rice, fish, fruits and vegetables, as well as favorable domestic supply conditions, lower oil prices and the peso appreciation as contributing factors to the sagging prices of goods and services in the country.
Citi Research economists see inflation settling at 1.9 percent in April and have reduced their full-year forecast to 2.2 percent from a previous forecast of 2.6 percent.
“According to the BSP, the risks to the inflation outlook have also eased and continue to be broadly balanced from 2025 to 2027,” Citi Research said in a statement.
The upside pressures will come from possible increases in transport charges, meat prices, and utility rates, it said.
“Meanwhile, downside risks are linked to the continuing effects of lower tariffs on rice imports and the expected impact of weaker global demand,” Citi Research added.
Economists at Chinabank Research estimate that inflation eased to 1.6 percent in April, saying this is “possibly the second straight month that headline inflation fell below the BSP’s 2–4 percent target range.”
“The deceleration could be attributed to lower prices of key food items such as rice, fish, vegetables, and fruits, as well as LPG,” Chinabank Research added.
Security Bank’s VP and Research Division head Angelo B. Taningco said their April inflation forecast also stands at 1.9 percent.
“Major factors include low food inflation due to declining prices of rice, fish, meat …” Taningco said in a separate statement.
Pantheon Macroeconomics chief Emerging Asia economist Miguel Chanco expects a 2.1 percent inflation print for April, “primarily on the back of food inflation rebounding with the help of base effects.”
“As long as inflation remains this muted, then we think the Monetary Board will continue to be more open to additional rate cuts,” he said.
”That being said, a lot will also hang on the GDP report coming next week, which, if it disappoints, should almost guarantee a further easing in June,” Chanco said.
Inflation in March 2025 slowed to 1.8 percent from 2.1 percent in February and 3.7 percent a year earlier, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported in early April.
The slower price movements in March were associated with slower increases in the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages.
Slower increases in housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, as well as transport, also contributed to the overall inflation in March.
Core inflation, which excludes select food and energy items, eased to 2.2 percent in March from 2.4 percent in February.
The PSA is scheduled to release the inflation data for April on May 6.
