The global labor market recovery has lost momentum.
As the COVID-19 pandemic enters its third calendar year, the global employment and social outlook remains uncertain and fragile, warns a new report from the International Labor Organization (ILO).
As a result, the pandemic has pushed millions of children into poverty, states the “World Employment and Social Outlook Trends 2022” report.
New estimates suggest that, in 2020, an additional 30 million adults fell into extreme poverty (living on less than $1.90 per day in purchasing power parity) while being out of paid work.
In addition, the number of extreme working poor — workers who do not earn enough through their work to keep themselves and their families above the poverty line — rose by 8 million, the flagship report says.
In 2022, ILO projections suggest that there will be a working-hour deficit equivalent to 52 million full-time jobs owing to crisis-induced labor market disruptions.
This figure is a sizeable improvement on 2021, when hours worked adjusted for population growth stood below their level in the fourth quarter of 2019 by the equivalent of 125 million full-time jobs (assuming a 48-hour working week). However, it remains extremely high, the report notes.
In 2022, the employment-to-population ratio is projected to stand at 55.9 percent — that is, 1.4 percentage points below its 2019 level.
Many of those who left the labor force have not come back, so the level of unemployment still underestimates the full employment impact of the crisis.
The global labor force participation rate, having fallen by close to 2 percentage points between 2019 and 2020, is projected to recover only partially to just below 59.3 per cent by 2022, around 1 percentage point below its 2019 level.
The global unemployment rate is projected to remain above its 2019 level until at least 2023. The total number of the unemployed is projected to decline by 7 million in 2022 to 207 million; in comparison, the 2019 figure was 186 million.
The global labor market outlook has “deteriorated” since the ILO’s last projections in 2021, the report says, pointing out that a return to pre-pandemic performance “is likely to remain elusive for much of the world over the coming years.”
On the basis of the latest economic growth forecasts, the ILO is projecting that total hours worked globally in 2022 will remain almost 2 percent below their pre-pandemic level when adjusted for population growth, corresponding to a deficit of 52 million full-time equivalent jobs (assuming a 48-hour working week).
Global unemployment is now projected to stand at 207 million in 2022, surpassing its 2019 level by some 21 million, “a substantial deterioration” since the projections made in the previous edition when the shortfall in working hours relative to the fourth quarter of 2019 was projected to narrow to less than 1 percent in 2022. – Paul Icamina
