The Luzon grid may experience yellow alerts starting the last week of April until mid-June, think tank Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities (ICSC) warned.
The ICSC examined the sufficiency of power supply in Luzon for the second quarter of the year based on the demand forecasts presented by the Department of Energy (DOE) last March.
Yellow alerts are issued when the level of power reserve in the grid is low, while red alerts are declared when actual power supply against demand is insufficient and power interruptions are imminent.
“Higher demand during summer lowers the available generating capacity from weeks 17 (April 24 to 30) to 24 (June 12 to 18) of 2023. The supply can further deplete as forced outages of large baseload power plants can unexpectedly occur in these times, likely pushing the system into yellow alert and near red alert levels. This highlights the need to monitor the compliance of all power plants with the Grid Operating and Maintenance Program (GOMP) plans of the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines,” said Jephraim Manansala, ICSC chief data scientist of ICSC, in a statement.
The ICSC took into consideration DOE assumptions Luzon grid will have 15 weeks under yellow alert status but none under red alert status this year. Those assumptions factored in peak demand requirements of 13,125 megawatts (MW), zero planned maintenance outages but 600 MW of forced power plant outages during the second quarter of the year.
ICSC said to prevent power supply from falling under red alert levels which would mean actual power interruptions, the government and power industry players must ensure power plants will comply with the GOMP by minimizing outages during this critical period.
It said ancillary services must be enough to support power transmission.
ICSC also called for the effective implementation of the Interruptible Load Program and the timely completion of committed power projects.
Manansala said recommended contingency plans may help prevent a power crisis this quarter but noted more long-term solutions are needed to address the Philippines’ energy challenges.
“The current grid, centralized on large baseload coal power plants is unsuitable for the country’s variable load demand and recurring supply shortages. Instead, evidence shows that we urgently need to shift towards flexible and distributed power generation using indigenous and readily available renewable energy sources. This will enable us to achieve affordable, reliable and secure power for everyone, while reducing our reliance on fossil fuels and promoting sustainable development,” Manansala said.
ICSC added the cooperation of consumers is also crucial in ensuring the continuous supply of electricity in Luzon. This entails energy-saving measures in the workplace, shifting energy-intensive activities to non-peak hours and the use of more efficient technologies to help balance the power supply in the grid and reduce the risk of power outages. -Jed Macapagal
